The Final Four is here! Four No. 1 seeds headline the event for the first time since 2008 and for the second time in NCAA Tournament history. The first matchup is Florida vs. Auburn, but let’s dive into the second game between the Blue Devils and the Cougars. Duke and Houston play in the night’s final game at 8:49 p.m. ET.
This is the second-ever matchup between Duke and Houston. They played each other last season, with Duke winning 54-51. Duke has won 31 of its last 32 games, while Houston has won 30 of its previous 31 contests. Here is my pick for Saturday’s Final Four matchup between the Blue Devils and the Cougars.
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Duke vs. Houston (8:49 p.m. ET)
Entering the Final Four, this is arguably the most stacked semifinals in history. All four teams are ranked in KenPom’s top 10 in college basketball history. This matchup features two of the best defensive teams in the country. Houston only allows 58.3 points per contest, which is the fewest in the sport, while Duke gives up 62.6, which is seventh.
Duke has a major advantage on the offensive end of the floor. They average 82.7 points a game, while Houston only scores 74.2. Although Houston is undersized, they have the necessary pieces to not only cover the spread of +5.5 but win this game outright. The Cougars are normally the aggressors and out-tough their opponents, but Duke excels at the same things.
Duke’s backcourt consists of Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel, and Sion James. Proctor has proven to be an x-factor for the Blue Devils, scoring at least 17 points in four of his previous five games. Houston’s three-headed monster features L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan. Each player can take over a game. Cryer has been their most consistent player this season, averaging 15.4 points per game.
Houston has three overtime losses this season and one regulation defeat. All four of the Cougars’ losses have been by five or fewer points, and I don’t believe that this one will be different. Houston has the older roster with the edge in experience, which is always very important in the Final Four.
This has the potential to be an all-time game, and I believe it will be. The line of 5.5 is so close that a one-possession game is possible in this contest. Cooper Flagg had an iconic performance of 30 points, seven assists, and six rebounds against Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen. But he has been held to 18 or fewer points in three of his last four games. If J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler can be physical and limit Flagg’s production, the Cougars will have a great path to victory.
College Basketball Pick: Houston +5.5
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