In different ways, the Atlanta Hawks and the Houston Rockets arguably had the most embarrassing playoff eliminations in 2025/26, with the Hawks suffering among the biggest closeout game losses in NBA history and the Rockets going down 3-0 to a Los Angeles Lakers team missing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. Both teams entered the 2026/27 season in need of some redemption.
So far, both have found it; Houston is 3-0, and Atlanta is 2-1, with its only defeat coming on Saturday against the Rockets at home. Now, the teams will rematch in Southeast Texas. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET.
The Hawks’ three two-way players (RayJ Dennis, Keshon Gilbert, and Jalen Wilson) are all doubtful, with Henri Veesaar (ACL) and Mouhamed Gueye (foot) remaining out with their long-term injuries. As for Houston, Steven Adams (foot) remains out alongside two-way players Quadir Copeland and Julian Phillips, while Marcus Smart (forearm) is questionable after sitting out Saturday’s game. Fred VanVleet, who rested on Saturday, will play.
The Rockets are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-205) and Atlanta is +170. The point total is set to 229.5.
Below, I’ll break down tonight’s rematch and offer a prediction.
Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets preview, prediction
The Hawks ended the 2025/26 regular season strong, and some of that momentum has carried over to 2026/27. So far, they’ve had the league’s fourth-best offense, with 2025/26 All-Star Jalen Johnson leading the way in scoring ahead of Most Improved Player Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Atlanta’s offseason additions, Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins (acquired for former first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher), have also made an impressive two-way impact, as Wiggins is shooting 52.6% from deep and averaging 1.7 steals per game. The Hawks rank sixth in defensive rating and third in net rating so far, though their numbers are skewed by a blowout against the Charlotte Hornets.
Similarly, Houston has been a two-way juggernaut to open its season. So far, the Rockets have had the league’s third-best offense despite playing one of the league’s best defensive teams in Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs, a game that they won on an Amen Thompson block of Wembanyama. Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün are both off to strong starts, with Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. each chipping in at least 17 points per game as well. Houston’s defense ranks 17th, but Thompson and Fred VanVleet have had strong individual moments, and Smart’s potential return after missing Saturday’s game should help.
Hawks at Rockets pick, best bet
Rim protection will be critical. This season, Atlanta has attempted the seventh-most shots per game in the restricted area and the Rockets a league-average number, but both teams have finished efficiently. That might not be completely sustainable, given that the Hawks converted their layups at at the 10th-lowest rate in 2025/26, but it’s not inconceivable that Atlanta’s youngsters continue improving. Last season, Houston did a much better job stopping opponents from getting to the basket than the Hawks did, with both teams allowing conversions at a similar rate, and so far this season, it has been similary stingy. Smith’s early defensive strides could help make up for Adams’ absence and Şengün’s lackluster rim deterrence. Atlanta should still have the slight overall edge in interior play with Adams inactive, but Onyeka Okongwu is far from a dominant rim protector.
The Rockets narrowly won the rebounding battle in Saturday’s game, and I expect that to be the case again, given that the Hawks start a relatively undersized center in Okongwu. Even when Adams wasn’t on the court, Houston still snagged 53.7% of all available rebounds last season, and Atlanta was out-rebounded throughout the campaign. On the other hand, I expect the Hawks to make up some of that advantage in transition, as Quin Snyder’s philosophy necessitates that they stay active in the passing lanes, and they won the turnover battle on Saturday. The Rockets are more disciplined and better at getting to the foul line, consistent with both 2025/26 performance and Saturday’s result.
The shooting swing factor should benefit Atlanta. This season, the Hawks have produced the third-most wide-open threes per game but gotten unlucky to connect at only a 29.7% clip, while Houston has produced a league-average number but made more than half of its looks. That’s consistent with 2025/26, when Atlanta also generated significantly more uncontested looks than the Rockets did. Johnson (two-for-14 from deep so far) is bound to improve, as is Okongwu (two-for-13), while I’m not sure Durant’s accuracy (seven-for-13) of Şengün’s (five-for-eight) is entirely sustainable. Houston has conceded more wide-open tries than the Hawks have in both 2025/26 and 2026/27.
Home-court advantage could be enough to make the difference in this one — the Rockets had a record eight games better and a net rating 4.8 points per 100 possessions better at home than on the road in 2025/26, while Atlanta was two games and 3.3 points per 100 possessions worse — but as long as the Hawks continue to be aggressive getting downhill, they can take advantage of Adams’ absence to get a few buckets on Şengün. VanVleet’s steadying presence could stop Atlanta from picking up a road win, but this one truly could go either way.
