The final game of the NFL regular season has the potential to be one of the best of the season. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings each enter with 14-2 records and the winner of this matchup will decide who gets the top seed in the NFC and who will drop to a Wild Card slot.
Both of these teams have been extremely impressive all season and should be viewed as legitimate Super Bowl threats. But dropping from the first to the fifth seed makes the playoff path much more difficult for either. Either team would have a clear path to the division title if they were in any other division outside of the NFC North or AFC West but instead must compete with each other with this game holding all the stakes.
The Lions enter this game as 2.5-point favorites and -148 on the Moneyline. The Vikings are +124 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 56.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the NFL regular season finale.
Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The passing game will steal the headlines but Aaron Jones’ rushing yards are my favorite prop bet on the slate. Jones signed with the Vikings this offseason after spending the first seven seasons of his career with the Packers. He has become a key part of the Vikings’ offensive attack and logged 1,000+ rushing yards for the fourth season of his career. Overall this season Jones has carried the ball 245 times for 1,093 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
While Detroit’s offense deserves a ton of credit, their defense has become increasingly concerning. Looking at their rushing defense, Detroit ranks 18th in net yards per rush attempt and 21st in rushing touchdowns allowed. They have allowed over 130 rushing yards in five games this season and over 70 rushing yards in 12 games.
Jones is averaging 68.3 rushing yards per game and has rushed for over 58.5 yards in 10 of the 16 games that he has played this season. During the Week 7 matchup between these two teams, Jones carried the ball 14 times for 93 yards and made it into the end zone. There will be plenty of opportunities for the Vikings to air the ball out in the passing game, but expect a focus on keeping balance in the offense and running the football. Count on Jones rushing for over 58.5 yards for the 11th time this year and the second time against the Lions.
Sam Darnold to throw 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+170)
Sam Darnold has been nothing short of excellent for this Vikings team this season. The former third-overall pick has rejuvenated his career outlook and has been everything the Vikings needed him to be this year. Darnold has completed 68.1% of his pass attempts for a career-high 4,153 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He has thrown for three touchdowns in back-to-back games leading into this matchup and three or more touchdowns in six games this season.
The Lions’ defense will provide a great opportunity to add to this list. If there is one clear flaw in this contending team, it is on the defensive side of the ball. These issues have only been further magnified as the season progressed and the injuries continued to stack up. Detroit ranks ninth in points allowed but 22nd in yards given up. Looking at their pass defense, they rank 31st in passing yards allowed and 27th in net yards per pass attempt.
The Vikings will leave everything on the field this week and must be ready for a shootout as they prepare to face the NFL’s top-scoring offense. Darnold is at the epicenter of everything the Vikings do offensively and will be ready to steer the unit once again. Look for him to throw for three or more touchdowns for the third consecutive week.
Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison to Combine for 250+ Receiving Yards (+750)
It is a small list of NFL wide receiver duos that are better than Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The two have combined for 2,354 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns. Jefferson is averaging 92.4 receiving yards per game while Addison is averaging 62.5 receiving yards per game.
While it is a large leap for them to get to 250+ receiving yards, this is as great of an opportunity as they could ask for. Detroit has given up the second-most receiving yards on the season and has given up 323 yards or more through the air in each of the past three weeks. Just two weeks ago Jefferson had a season-high 144 receiving yards and has looked more and more impressive as the season has progressed. Addison has tallied as many as 162 receiving yards in a game this season and has developed into an ideal counterpart to Jefferson.
This +750 odds indicate this is a long shot, but this is worth taking a chance on this week. Addison has shown some impressive progress as the year has continued while Jefferson remains in the conversation for the league’s best wide receiver. Expect Sam Darnold to be given the free reign to throw it plenty and for his top two receivers to benefit from this. The concerns with the Lions’ defense are legitimate and Minnesota is built to expose them. Expect some offensive fireworks.
Za’Darius Smith to Have 2+ Sacks (+800)
As if the stakes for both teams weren’t notable enough, Za’Darius Smith has some money on the line. Smith has 8.0 sacks this season and would earn an additional $250,000 if he can reach ten sacks this year. Detroit traded for Smith mid-season following the injury to Aidan Hutchinson. The former second-overall pick was looked at as a leader on the Lions’ defense and was making a case for Defensive Player of the Year before the injury so left some massive shoes to fill.
Za’Darius Smith was about as great of an option Detroit could have hoped for when attempting to make the mid-season fix. Across seven games with the Lions, he has tallied just three sacks but has had 10+ sacks in three seasons already in his career. This includes the 2022 season which he spent with the Minnesota Vikings.
Now on the other side of the matchup, expect Smith to set the tone for the Lions’ pass rush. Minnesota has allowed 47 sacks this season which comes out to 2.9 sacks allowed per game. Smith has had two or more sacks in nine different games in his NFL career. With Minnesota looking to attack through the air and so much at stake in this matchup, expect a strong performance from Smith as he chases the incentive. Taking a chance on the +800 odds is worth taking a chance on tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
