Last season, the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers both took huge steps forward. Both teams broke significant playoff droughts: the Spurs jumped to the second seed in the West, and the Blazers won the play-in to secure the seventh seed. That made for an intriguing playoff matchup, but the Spurs dispatched the Blazers with ease, winning 4-1 on their way to the Finals. Now they’ll face each other for the first time since, with Portland yearning to exact revenge at home.
The Spurs enter as 5.5-point road favorites, with the game total set at 229.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s my prediction and best bet for this Western Conference matchup.
Spurs vs. Blazers Preview
It’s no surprise the Spurs are thriving again. They largely ran back the same roster that won 62 games last season and are riding a seven-game winning streak into this matchup. Over that streak, they have the NBA’s second-highest offensive rating (120) and the No. 1 net rating (14.1). Of course, Victor Wembanyama deserves plenty of credit, but they have plenty of impressive contributors. Stephon Castle does a bit of everything, ranking second on the team in rebounding and assisting while being third in scoring. Julian Champagnie is shooting the cover off the ball. De’Aaron Fox has found his form, shooting 53% from the field and leading the team in assists. And Tobias Harris, their big offseason acquisition, hasn’t even stepped on the floor.
Most importantly, Dylan Harper has taken the next step. This season, he’s averaging 18.7 points (second to Wemby), 5.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, while boasting a stunning 50/38/89 shooting split. The 20-year-old point guard came on strong in the playoffs and is shaping up to be San Antonio’s second-most important player so far. He did it again on Friday against Sacramento, putting up 19 points on only 10 shot attempts.
Relative to expectations, Portland’s start has been even more impressive. They’re 6-2 so far and rank second in offensive rating (120). Of course, their leading scorer and passer, Deni Avdija, deserves praise, but he’s been this level of player since getting to Portland. The additions around him have taken them to a new level, namely the re-addition of Damian Lillard. Defying the odds as a 36-year-old coming off Achilles surgery, he’s been their second-best scorer this year, bagging 20.4 points per game so far. Ja Morant, acquired for pennies on the dollar, looked excellent before hitting the shelf with a hamstring strain. Those three can form a strong offense when on the floor together.
How far this team ultimately goes rests on the defense. Between Jrue Holiday and Toumani Camara, Portland has an excellent duo of perimeter defenders who can play with just about anybody because of their shooting. Donovan Clingan is one heck of a rebounder and paint anchor. It’s a lot to cover for the defensive weaknesses of Avdija, Morant, and Lillard, but they can make this an average group. A top-five offense with a middle-of-the-pack defense can go far.
It’ll be interesting to see both teams coming off a back-to-back. With so many young talents on these rosters, it’s all eyes on the veterans to see how they respond. De’Aaron Fox and Jrue Holiday aren’t exactly spry these days, and they’ll see a lot of each other on both ends of the floor. Jrue, in particular, will be crucial for Portland and will likely be tasked with guarding Dylan Harper.
Wemby’s shotmaking is the swing factor for this matchup. He’s taking 6.2 threes per game this season but knocking down only 28.6%. Against a paint-bound center like Clingan, his three-point threat is sorely needed to draw him out to the perimeter and open driving lanes for Harper, Castle, and Fox. If Clingan won’t respect his shot and stays glued to the paint, they can disrupt San Antonio’s offense.
Spurs vs. Blazers Pick, Best Bet
I can’t ignore the Blazers’ value here. They’re playing outstanding offensive hoops and have a defensive system that can bother the Spurs. Head coach Micah Nori’s tweaks to the offensive system are putting opponents on their back foot, and that’s a notable advantage here at home on the back end of a back-to-back.
