Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado finally got an afternoon in which the long completions arrived in bunches. He threw for 323 yards at Northern Illinois, hit four passes of at least 40 yards and helped the Rainbow Warriors roar to a 56–21 win. After spending seven FBS games scoring no more than 2.42 points per competitive drive, Hawaii finished at 5.44. Alejado heads to El Paso with a much better glimpse of what his receivers and backs can do in space. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UTEP Miners and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UTEP vs. Hawaii prediction, preview
Hawaii opened with a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive and covered the same distance in five plays later. Back Cam Barfield turned a catch into 62 yards, DeVon Rice rushed for 71 and three touchdowns, and Alejado completed 22 of 32 throws. The Rainbow Warriors also forced five turnovers, which gave an already productive offense extra help. I expect fewer gifts from UTEP, but Alejado has shown he can get Hawaii down a long field without waiting for one.
The Miners made North Dakota State work for much of its 31–7 win. The Bison had 17 points inside the final two minutes before returning a fumble for a touchdown and scoring again after an interception. UTEP still conceded an 80-yard touchdown drive in the third quarter, and the season has been much harsher than that competitive stretch suggests. The Miners have allowed 3.51 points per competitive FBS drive and rank 131st in adjusted EPA per pass allowed. Alejado should have chances to find receiver Audric Harris downfield and Barfield underneath.
UTEP caught North Dakota State beautifully on the opening snap, putting quarterbacks EJ Colson Jr. and Raymond Moore III on the field together. Colson moved aside, Moore took the direct snap and ran 57 yards for a touchdown. The Miners gained 181 yards on the next 50 plays. Colson threw for 59 with two interceptions, and Moore added 32 through the air. UTEP has finished just 9.1% of competitive FBS drives with touchdowns. Its quarterbacks need something repeatable after that clever first snap.
Hawaii vs. UTEP pick, best bet
Moore can get another chance to run against a Hawaii front missing several linemen. The Rainbow Warriors rank 114th in adjusted defensive drive efficiency, so UTEP should move better than it did against North Dakota State if it can avoid long passing downs. Receiver Jaden Smith and back Tavorus Jones are questionable. Without both, Colson has fewer ways to build on a good Moore run, while Alejado can turn to Rice when a throw falls incomplete.
I’ll lay 8.5 with Hawaii. Alejado can lose some of those spectacular Northern Illinois completions and still exploit a secondary that has been allowing good throws to become long drives. UTEP needs its quarterbacks to sustain enough offense to get beyond the occasional Moore burst. Hawaii has the better chance to turn an ordinary possession into the next touchdown.
Best bet: Hawaii -8.5 (-112).
Projected score: Hawaii 28, UTEP 14.
Best Bet: Hawaii -8.5 (-110) at UTEP
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