New Mexico State is wasting some excellent running from back James Jones. Against Jacksonville State, the Aggies marched 78 yards in 17 plays on their opening possession and missed a 31-yard field goal. Jones finished with 112 rushing yards, fellow back TJ Washington Jr. added 70, and New Mexico State still got shut out. Liberty arrives with a defense that has been particularly cruel to offenses once they have to throw. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the New Mexico State Aggies and the Liberty Flames.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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NMSU vs. Liberty prediction, preview
The Aggies passed for 23 yards against Jacksonville State and earned one first down through the air. Coach Tony Sanchez has given quarterbacks Trey Hedden and Kalani McLeod more first-team reps, with Adam Damante still getting work. New Mexico State has averaged 1.38 points per competitive FBS drive, and a quarterback change leaves the same underlying demand. Somebody has to complete a useful throw after Jones gets stopped.
Jones can spare the quarterback plenty of those downs if the line gives him room. He rushed for 178 yards at Sam Houston, where New Mexico State earned 21 first downs despite converting only two of 12 third downs. Liberty has allowed 1.05 points per competitive FBS drive and touchdowns on just 11.5% of those possessions. The Flames rank 50th in opponent-adjusted defensive drive efficiency, and I expect Jones to move them on some early downs. He still needs somebody to help finish his work.
Liberty quarterback Deshawn Purdie has been making his passing opportunities count, throwing 10 touchdowns against one interception. Receiver Makai Jackson has averaged 21.6 yards on 29 catches, so New Mexico State has to defend a devastating downfield threat while accounting for Purdie’s own carries. He ran for 24 yards on four attempts against FIU, including gains of eight and 14. After surrendering 211 rushing yards to Jacksonville State quarterback Caden Creel, the Aggies have good reason to honor that part of Liberty’s offense, too.
Liberty vs. NMSU pick, best bet
Aggies defenders Sone Aupiu and Gabe Peterson have combined for 16.5 tackles for loss, and Liberty has been careless enough to average 82.5 penalty yards per game. New Mexico State can force the Flames to work uphill. Liberty also drove 81, 77 and 65 yards for touchdowns against FIU, with quarterback Ethan Vasko scoring twice near the goal line. The Flames have finished 43.5% of competitive FBS drives with touchdowns. Purdie and Jackson can get them there quickly, and Vasko gives them a forceful answer for the last few yards.
I’m laying 16.5 because Liberty has repeatedly finished the kind of possessions New Mexico State has been squandering. Jones can take the Aggies across midfield and give their defense a rest. Unless Sanchez gets useful passing alongside him, the Aggies will still need a string of stops against an offense that can score from distance and finish with several different runners.
Best bet: Liberty -16.5 (-110).
Projected score: Liberty 34, New Mexico State 13.
Best Bet: Liberty -16.5 (-110) at NMSU
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