UNLV coach Dan Mullen had a bye to address a defense that let Air Force rush for 430 yards. Northern Illinois came to Las Vegas and ran for 240 anyway, with Mullen counting more than 20 missed tackles. The Rebels have had ample time to fix the same mistakes and are still making them. Wyoming quarterback Tyler Hughes arrives after rushing for 421 yards and five touchdowns during a three-game winning streak. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UNLV Rebels and the Wyoming Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UNLV vs. Wyoming prediction, preview
Hughes and back Markell Holman should find room. Wyoming ranks 19th in adjusted EPA per rush against a defense that ranks 113th, and the Cowboys have had their own bye to prepare. Their trouble has come after an opponent stops the first run. On the road, Wyoming has scored 1.30, 1.25, 0.00 and 1.44 points per competitive drive. Hughes has thrown all seven of his interceptions away from home. UNLV can miss a tackle and still get another chance to end the possession.
Hughes has shown he can persevere through those bad downs. Wyoming allowed six sacks at San Jose State, then assembled an 18-play, 75-yard tying drive with Holman and tight end Jake Wilson converting fourth downs. That sort of persistence can wear on a defense tackling as poorly as UNLV’s. The Rebels nevertheless allowed 2.40 points per competitive drive against Northern Illinois despite all the rushing yards. Wyoming still has to convert the ground it gains into a clean finish.
Rebels quarterback Jackson Arnold has his own opportunity to run. Wyoming gave up 304 rushing yards in a 28–14 win over Air Force, with the Falcons losing three fumbles. Arnold rushed for 86 yards against Northern Illinois and threw for 269 with three touchdowns. Lead back Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas is questionable after rushing for 657 yards this season. Arnold may have to take on more himself if Thomas can’t handle his usual work.
Wyoming vs. UNLV pick, best bet
Arnold hit receiver Kayden McGee for a 75-yard touchdown against the Huskies, and UNLV drove 71 and 89 yards for two other scores. The Rebels managed only seven points after halftime, on Thomas’ 60-yard burst. They have averaged 2.11 points per competitive FBS drive. Wyoming has made 27 tackles for loss over its last four games, and a few more would make Arnold work through the same difficult distances that have troubled Hughes. Both quarterbacks can create a long gain. Both offenses have had afternoons when the next few snaps undid it.
I’m taking under 48.5. Hughes can punish UNLV’s tackling without suddenly solving Wyoming’s road passing and finishing problems. Arnold has the better chance to turn his good runs into touchdowns, though Thomas’ uncertain workload removes some confidence in the Rebels’ explosiveness. I expect enough possessions to end after substantial yardage, especially on Wyoming’s side, to leave this in the 40s.
Best bet: Under 48.5 (-112).
Projected score: UNLV 27, Wyoming 17.
Best Bet: UNLV vs. Wyoming u48.5 total points scored (-110)
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