CeeDee Lamb one-man-showed Dallas through another frantic finish Sunday in dramatic fashion, catching the winning touchdown against the Texans after a career-best 17 receptions for 189 yards. Similarly in Week 4, the Buccaneers held out all the way to the final possessions with a chance, too, but rookie QB Jalon Daniels couldn’t push them downfield far enough for a game-tying field goal. Thursday thus brings together a Cowboys team that’d love to play a primetime game in which their stars don’t have to rescue them, and a winless barrel-bottom Bucs team with, at least, a capable defense. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cowboys vs. Bucs prediction, preview
Tampa OC Zac Robinson finally saw a good look at his backfield in expanded rotation against Green Bay on Sunday: Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell each scored, and Jalon Daniels added a surprising 55 rushing yards in his first start. Dallas just finished tightening their run defense in their win against Houston, however, conceding just 62 yards on 19 carries. I expect, however, Robinson to continue keeping his backs in rotation while his rookie quarterback settles in. Because has Daniels still inherited the offensive line dysfunction that plagued Baker Mayfield. Tampa has surrendered a whopping 16 sacks through four games. In his post-game presser, Daniels acknowledged choosing the wrong protection against Green Bay’s double-A-gap look on the decisive fourth down play. As such, Cowboys DC Christian Parker’s interior overloads can stress test this line once more, and likely win quite a bit.
The Cowboys also now have Joey Porter Jr. handling boundary coverage after the Steelers traded him to Dallas, and they also get Malik Hooker back at safety. I’d anticipate the Bucs answering the Cowboys’ stouter secondary through easy routes to Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka over the middle, some screens, and Daniels’ legs. Cooked just right, those ingredients are a recipe that may sustain some possessions. Finishing them, however, remains another matter: Tampa converted only 30% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns through Week 3, ranking 30th. And that was with baker. A trailing Daniels throwing more often would be something Porter and this improved secondary would lick their lips at.
Prescott & co. face a sturdier run defense than he saw against Houston, so we may not see so much Javonte Williams success. Tampa entered Sunday fourth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.22), and Williams needed goal-line opportunities to turn an otherwise modest 3.3 yards per carry into three touchdowns. Schottenheimer can attack elsewhere: a cosmic-storming Lamb underneath, George Pickens against isolated coverage in the second-level, Jake Ferguson when Bowles sends linebackers. The Bucs have blitzed at the league’s third-highest rate through Week 3 (43.4%), but they’ve generated the fourth-lowest overall pressure rate—they’re simply not getting home. With Antoine Winfield Jr.’s rib/abdomen injury sidelining him a few weeks, Prescott has good reason to keep eviscerating this secondary.
Bucs vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
That’s the strongest objection to the under. Dallas’ own continuing coverage failures helped C.J. Stroud average a punishing 11.2 yards per attempt in Week 4, too. Dallas’ coverage failures offer Daniels a better chance to move the ball, but his debut suggests a considerable distance between where he’s at and where Stroud was at during Nico Collins’ return on sunday. Against Green Bay, Daniels connected on 19 of 27 throws yet averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt; even Chris Godwin’s six catches produced a meager 31 yards. Robinson schemed easy completions for his rookie, sure. He still needs his receivers to turn those catches into substantial gains.
I’m allowing Tampa more scoring against Dallas, whose coverage mistakes can turn an underneath completion into something much larger. Daniels’ two interceptions and three sacks Sunday still loom larger: he surrendered possessions and lost yardage even while completing most of his throws. I like Tampa for 17 here, with their rushing keeping some drives alive and their protection ending others. Prescott can reach 27 against a defense that contests the run but struggles to pressure the passer. That brings me to 44, with Tampa’s limited passing production carrying more weight than another quarterback’s success against Dallas.
Best bet: Under 47.5 points (-110).
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 17.
