Time’s a flat circle. See Rust Cohle from True Detective twirling a flattened beer can through his fingers in the fluorescent-lit 2005 interrogation room. Jayden Daniels’ same elbow. Jaxson Dart’s obliterated knee. Caleb Williams’s terrifying and emotional hamstring pull. We’ve seen all this before, somewhere, in some iteration. And while it felt like last week may have been the week of the replacement WR2/3, this is most certainly the week—both in fantasy and in the NFL—of the backup quarterback. What sort of structural integrity, in terms of production floor, can they possibly provide for our fantasy assets this week? Not to mention the mid-round draft capital so many of us snagged (Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Godwin, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Mike Washington, etc.) whose value has seemingly evaporated for one injurious reason or another. Bloodbath after bloodbath.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more—but, I mean, is it really? It’s at least a deliciously autumnal one, on the brink of the season’s first nor’easter here in Maine. Football season, indeed. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition. It’s the sort of week where I’m hoping this series functions, for so many of us, as a true lifeline for a potential victory come the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 3. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 3
- Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 3
Fantasy football Week 3: Top five FLEX plays to start
Adonai Mitchell, NYJ (vs. Lions)
Geno Smith has slung it to Adonai Mitchell at a substantial 23.1% TGT% through two games, with an even-more encouraging 25% first-read TGT%. Those early looks are crucial for a receiver working at a lofty 15.7-yard aDOT: Mitchell already occupies a deliberate place in the passing game alongside Garrett Wilson. Mitchell may be out there for every snap, and the looks he’s been getting are of the value that change fantasy matchups in an instant.
Detroit, a slated shootout by all measures, should be a perfect fit for AD. The Lions have deployed single-high coverage on a sizable 55.4% of snaps, and Mitchell’s carved an outstanding 33% TPRR with an excellent 2.93 YPRR against those looks. He’s becoming one of the NFL’s premier single-high reapers, like Alec Pierce before him.
Even if the Lions bring pressure. Smith has answered the blitz impressively. He ranks fourth in YPA and fifth in passing success rate through two games; he’ll keep giving himself chances to find Mitchell downfield. Two games is admittedly a terrifically small sample size, particularly when so much of a this one’s appeal involves longer completions. But Mitchell’s robust 16.4 XFP/G nevertheless edges Wilson’s 15.4, somehow, for the best fantasy receiver on his team. He’s got WR2 upside.
Devaughn Vele, NO (vs. Raiders)
The first of two repeat FLEX plays this week! Devaughn Vele is your league leader in routes run, bafflingly, with 89 through two games. It’s an extraordinary amount of work for a receiver who commands a fairly ordinary target percentage. Since last season’s Rashid Shaheed trade, his pedestrian 17% TPRR isn’t yet that of an alpha WR2’s. However, Tyler Shough keeps finding enough opportunities for him anyway, and that persistence interests me considerably. It also boosts Vele’s ceiling in ways that might border on stratospheric, the way Shough is chucking it right now.
Chris Olave’s the clear alpha and demands the first reads re. Shough’s attention, while Juwan Johnson still occasionally gets open underneath. Vele still matched Olave’s ample 87% RTE% against Baltimore, catching five passes for 64 yards after another productive opening game.
Las Vegas has conceded a generous 89.0 slot receiving YPG, fourth-most in the league, so Vele’s inside work and alignments are particularly interesting this week. Across 130 routes against Cover 3 and Cover 6 since last season, he has managed an uninspiring 1.08 YPRR. The Raiders use those coverages frequently, so Vele’s only a FLEX this week.
I’m favoring Vele for repeated opportunities and PPR accumulation, with a handful of productive catches from gunslinger Shough. Another afternoon resembling his first two would serve a FLEX spot quite well.
Dontayvion Wicks, PHI (at Bears)
And now here’s the second of our holdovers from Week 2. Deservedly so. Dontayvion Wicks followed his opening-week TD with five catches for 74 yards against Tennessee. Yet again, as a first-year receiver in this offense, he continues to earn useful downfield throws while DeVonta Smith absorbs defenses’ heaviest attention. Jalen Hurts targeted Wicks six times despite just a 67% RR%. I like the production, and I’d be more enthusiastic still if Philadelphia stopped rotating quite so many receivers through the passing game.
Against man coverage since last season, Wicks has earned a formidable 30% TPRR and produced a healthy 2.16 YPRR across 70 routes. The Bears have used man at the league’s third-highest frequency (43.3%), with their outside coverage conceding a dreadful, league-worst 12.21 YPT. Wicks has can absolutely eviscerate that weakness.
Not to mention, Dallas Goedert’s knee injury could preserve additional opportunities for Wicks, though Zach Ertz’s return will certainly see itself materialized in the box score. I’d still expect Hurts to look toward Smith first on plenty of important downs, as well. Wicks will be there for the secondary plays.
That still leaves Wicks in WR3 territory for me, though. Chicago’s poor perimeter coverage makes another productive afternoon plausible. With his target earning against man coverage already encouraging, he’s an easy FLEX start.
Blake Corum, LAR (at Broncos)
Sean McVay gave Blake Corum as many carries as Kyren Williams against the Giants, and Corum responded with an emphatic 12/79 rushing line. He looked absolutely sterling everytime he had the ball, but for one fumble he recovered himself. The Rams are rotating drives between two productive runners, and the offense has room for both to be fantasy-friendly each week.
The Rams’ offensive line’s superb 90.1 PFF run-blocking grade leads the league, and Corum has taken advantage of it. He’s got a sparkling 6.0 YPC through two games. Denver, for all its defensive ferocity, is having trouble finishing plays right now, missing a league-worst 20 against the run. After Los Angeles creates the initial running space, I’d expect those tackling problems to give Corum additional chances to extend his gains.
His roughly 23% explosive-run rate comes from a small opening sample, and his lack of receiving work is absolute. Corum has averaged only 0.5 TGT/G, with Williams retaining the stronger passing role, especially near the end zone. Corum will likely never be a receiving back in this offense. Which is to say: A substantial Rams deficit would feasibly leave Corum short of useful touches.
In a competitive game, though, he gets such high-value work. FLEX-value work, at the very least, even this week against Denver.
Rachaad White, WAS (vs. Seahawks)
Last week, Washington trusted Rachaad White with an emphatic 93% of its third-down snaps against the Dallas Cowboys. Jacory Croskey-Merritt continued taking the bulk of the early-down, middle-eighty carries, sure. But White collected the work I’m most interested in against Seattle: a strong 17.1% TGT% and substantial 54.8% RTE%, both approximately sixth among RBs for the week. They’re ramping up his receiving work, and without Jaylen Daniels, checkdowns might get aplenty for replacement QB Marcus Mariota.
The Seahawks have conceded a stingy 1.00 adjusted YBC/ATT, third-fewest in the league, while allowing the ninth-most RB REC YPG (39.0). I’d expect Washington to find consistent rushing gains with Bill difficult, making its established passing-down back a particularly useful PPR option. White merely needs his offense to sustain enough possessions to use it.
White also received both carries inside the 10 against Dallas. Golly, that’s some welcome scoring access alongside those routes, isn’t it? I’m starting him as a PPR FLEX, with RB2 upside if Washington preserves that valuable combination.
