Time’s a flat circle. See Rust Cohle from True Detective twirling a flattened beer can through his fingers in the fluorescent-lit 2005 interrogation room. Jayden Daniels’ same elbow. Jaxson Dart’s obliterated knee. Caleb Williams’s terrifying and emotional hamstring pull. We’ve seen all this before, somewhere, in some iteration. And while it felt like last week may have been the week of the replacement WR2/3, this is most certainly the week—both in fantasy and in the NFL—of the backup quarterback. What sort of structural integrity, in terms of production floor, can they possibly provide for our fantasy assets this week? Not to mention the mid-round draft capital so many of us snagged (Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Godwin, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Mike Washington, etc.) whose value has seemingly evaporated for one injurious reason or another. Bloodbath after bloodbath.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more—but, I mean, is it really? It’s at least a deliciously autumnal one, on the brink of the season’s first nor’easter here in Maine. Football season, indeed. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition. It’s the sort of week where I’m hoping this series functions, for so many of us, as a true lifeline for a potential victory come the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We’re just about to get into my Top five fantasy D/STs for fantasy football Week 2. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 3
Fantasy football Week 3: Top five players to stash
KC Concepcion, WR, Browns
Deshaun Watson has looked to KC Concepcion atan encouraging 21.2% TGT% and a substantial 27% first-read TGT% through two games. Concepcion shares both team leads with Denzel Boston, whose downfield assignment differs considerably from his own. Boston was once a stash, but he’s now fully on everyone’s FLEX radar.
At a shallow 3.7-yard aDOT, Concepcion needs to turn short catches into meaningful gains, and needs Watson to improve at getting him the ball in space. Cleveland has already committed to manufacturing touches for him, with a hefty 36.4% designed-TGT rate. Let’s just let the yardage develop over several games when the offense keeps choosing to involve him.
That patience comes with regular PPR FLEX use in mind. Sustained target earning could make Concepcion useful during the bye weeks, while an expanded intermediate role would give him opportunities to produce farther downfield. I’d stash him now and judge the progression of his receiving assignment, allowing for the modest box scores that can accompany so much underneath work.
Ted Hurst, WR, Buccaneers
Ted Hurst drew seven targets and a hefty 145 AY against Cleveland, yet finished with just two catches for 27 yards. Baker Mayfield repeatedly sought him near the end zone, the part of that disappointing afternoon I’d most like Tampa Bay to repeat.
Mayfield has sent a substantial 82 uncatchable air yards toward Hurst through two games. Better placement could improve the return, although Hurst also failed to secure a difficult potential game-winner. Both players have work to do.
With Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka competing for throws, I’m reserving a bench spot for Hurst’s potential to earn a lasting downfield assignment. Several weeks of those valuable targets would matter more to me than one long TD. He could develop into a useful WR3 as his connection with Mayfield improves, but I’d need sustained involvement before treating him as a regular starter.
Terrance Ferguson, TE, Rams
Matthew Stafford gave Terrance Ferguson an imposing 29% target rate with Puka Nacua absent in Week 2, even while Davante Adams dominated the receiving yardage. Ferguson answered with six catches for 54 yards and a TD. I’d reserve a bench spot and let the next several games establish how much of that involvement he can retain.
His respectable 67% full-game RTE% supplies a useful starting point. Preserving those routes when Stafford has both star WRs available would tell me considerably more about Ferguson’s season-long value than another TD during Nacua’s absence.
The competition could reduce his targets considerably, but a regular receiving assignment would still make him useful as TE depth. Weekly TE1 consideration requires evidence that Stafford will continue seeking him in a healthier offense. Until then, his early involvement justifies holding him through a few uneven performances.
Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Browns
Harold Fannin earned a strong 24.9% TPRR last season, enough to make me patient with his uneven start. His encouraging rise from 67% to 80% RTE% in Week 2 at least restores opportunities to demonstrate that receiving ability, and Deshaun Watson targeted him six times.
Watson now looks first toward KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston more often, however, while Fannin works at a restrictive 3.78-yard aDOT with no red zone targets. He needs a more valuable assignment to develop a dependable fantasy role. More routes alone won’t resolve that problem.
I’d hold Fannin as TE depth while watching how Cleveland distributes its intermediate and scoring-area throws over the next several games. His prior target earning gives the recovery some foundation. Sustained participation accompanied by better targets could earn weekly-start consideration; several more weeks of shallow work would make that bench spot harder to justify.
Tyquan Thornton, WR, Chiefs
Tyquan Thornton posted an encouraging 0.330 ASS on untargeted corner routes in Week 1, then caught four passes for an explosive 86 yards against Indianapolis. Both samples demand restraint, but I’m interested enough in the sequence to reserve a bench spot while his role develops.
Patrick Mahomes already has Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce competing for throws. Thornton needs to earn a larger portion of that work, and his stronger early separation against man than zone leaves another part of his receiving game to examine. I’d want evidence that he can attract targets across different defensive looks.
Over the coming weeks, broader route participation and rising TGT% would persuade me that Kansas City has found a lasting use for him. That progression could make Thornton a playable WR3 with Mahomes. Isolated long catches would leave him a volatile reserve.
