Time’s a flat circle. See Rust Cohle from True Detective twirling a flattened beer can through his fingers in the fluorescent-lit 2005 interrogation room. Jayden Daniels’ same elbow. Jaxson Dart’s obliterated knee. Caleb Williams’s terrifying and emotional hamstring pull. We’ve seen all this before, somewhere, in some iteration. And while it felt like last week may have been the week of the replacement WR2/3, this is most certainly the week—both in fantasy and in the NFL—of the backup quarterback. What sort of structural integrity, in terms of production floor, can they possibly provide for our fantasy assets this week? Not to mention the mid-round draft capital so many of us snagged (Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Godwin, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Mike Washington, etc.) whose value has seemingly evaporated for one injurious reason or another. Bloodbath after bloodbath.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more—but, I mean, is it really? It’s at least a deliciously autumnal one, on the brink of the season’s first nor’easter here in Maine. Football season, indeed. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition. It’s the sort of week where I’m hoping this series functions, for so many of us, as a true lifeline for a potential victory come the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We’re just about to get into my Top five fantasy D/STs for fantasy football Week 2. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 3 (TK)
Fantasy football Week 3: Top five D/STs to start
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST (at Dolphins)
Dolphins QB Malik Willis has already taken nine sacks, struggling with both a punishing 43.1% pressure rate and an alarming 32.1% pressure-to-sack rate. His mobility hasn’t prevented possessions from ending behind the line, which makes Kansas City considerably more appealing than its disappointing one-point fantasy result against Indianapolis suggests. He’s also only been sent on one design run.
Miami’s protection also offers a specific weakness to attack. RG Jonah Savaiinaea carries a dismal 39.4 PFF pass-blocking grade. Chris Jones will attack that repeatedly.
Should Patrick Mahomes establish a lead, Willis would have to keep throwing through those difficulties. De’Von Achane can still punish a missed tackle, but I’m comfortable accepting some yardage against a team that keeps taking sacks. As such, Kansas City remains my first choice among defensive streamers.
Minnesota Vikings D/ST (at Bucanners)
Brian Flores, in his sinister Transylvanian castle atop a jagged mountainside, has concocted a ferocious, league-leading 50.6% pressure%, and opposing passers have managed a paltry 38.2% completion rate under that pressure. Baker Mayfield has already lost a league-worst 18.75 EPA to sacks. He might be due for a fourth bad game in a row against this front.
Tampa Bay’s tackles, at least, are still elite: Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke each conceded just one pressure last week. Inside, however, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton and Cody Mauch all finished below 60 in overall PFF grade. Those grades include run blocking, too.
I’d expect Flores to blow up those interior gaps. Sacks and stalled possessions galore are in store.
Buffalo Bills D/ST (vs. Chargers)
Buffalo has conceded a ghastly 31.0 PPG, but has still produced seven sacks through two weeks. The Bills are slated to generate plenty of negative plays, especially if Ladd McConkey is whatsoever injured, against this paltry Chargers offense. And a worse offensive roster, still.
Herbert’s oppressive 45.5% pressure% has thus far defined his season. On those pressured dropbacks, Los Angeles has generated a damaging -0.400 EPA/DB, and Kayode Awosika’s injury introduces another complication on the interior. Trevor Penning projects to replace him at LG.
Plain and simple: the Chargers have repeatedly struggled to protect their quarterback, ad infinitum—what’s been is what shall ever be, etc.. With Josh Allen capable of running up the score such that Herbert’ll be stuck in obvious passing situations, the Bills’ rush should feast. The Chargers look like the worst team in the league when playing from behind right now.
Carolina Panthers D/ST (at Cleveland Browns)
Carolina ruled out Devin Lloyd, Claudin Cherelus, and Nick Scott on Friday, removing enough coverage personnel to keep this a lower-end streaming recommendation for me. Jaelan Phillips carries no designation, so he’ll still be there to disrupt the rush.
Carolina ranks second in total QB hurries this year, and Deshaun Watson has encountered a troubling 20.0% quick-pressure% through two games. The Panthers need to flood the zone with early disruptions that force Cleveland into longer passing downs.
The Browns’ line has won plenty of individual assignments, however. Four starters own encouraging pass-blocking grades above 70.0, and rookie RG Austin Barber has conceded pressure on an excellent 1.4% of his pass-blocking snaps. Carolina will have to earn their sacks. But anything can happen with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and this defense is notoriously pesky.
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (at Steelers)
Cincinnati’s typically-horrid defense has actually been fun so far this season. They’ve converted a strong 39.2% pressure rate into an 8.7% sack rate, and that’s exactly the kind of disruption Aaron Rodgers has struggled to withstand in his wizened years. Through two games, he’s completed a meager 40% of attempts under pressure. He’s also taken six sacks, and looked quite crumply doing so.
Pittsburgh’s woeful 20% third-down conversion rate on offense means those negative plays hang especially brutal drive-to-drive. Rodgers has managed an anemic 5.2 YPA overall, so even his best drives that transcend good defensive play have yielded almost altogether no scoring.
I’d still temper my total enthusiasm about Cincinnati’s ability to suppress points altogether. Houston reached the RZ four times last week, for example. Against Pittsburgh, though, the pass rush and Rodgers’ poor pressured execution fit the way this group is playing. I’m expecting sacks, and maybe some T.J.-Watt-esque forced-fumbles of the Bengals’ own.
