No team has ever made the playoffs with a sub-.500 record in a 162-game MLB regular season, and while it looked for a while as if that might happen in the American League in 2026, the Cleveland Guardians’ recent seven-game winning streak makes that less likely.
Still, it’s a testament to the state of the league that, at 65-68, the Baltimore Orioles are still in with a shot at a Wild Card spot, and if they qualify, they’d make another type of history; no team has ever qualified four teams for the postseason in a 162-game campaign, and the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox are almost assured to make it.
The Orioles have helped their case by beating the St. Louis Cardinals twice on the road, with the series finale scheduled to begin at 2:15 p.m. ET. Trevor Rogers will start for Baltimore, and St. Louis will open Gordon Graceffo in a bullpen game that could also feature Cade Winquest in his MLB debut.
Let’s break down this inter-league matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bets
- Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+135): With the untested, walk-prone Hjerpe still recovering from 2025 Tommy John surgery, there will likely be a large impetus on the Cardinals’ shaky bullpen to step up tonight, and the Orioles’ offense is hot enough to punish them.
- Trevor Rogers 6+ Strikeouts (+157): Rogers has regained ace-level form in the second half of the season, pitching to a 3.40 ERA since the All-Star break and striking out at least six batters in six of his seven starts across that span.
Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
Since the start of July, the Orioles have played like a playoff team, as they’ve gone 26-20 to nearly back to .500 for the first time since April 17. Overall, since the All-Star break, they’ve gone 19-17, the fifth-best mark in the AL across that span. After languishing around the middle of the pack for most of the season, Baltimore’s offense has climbed to the league’s 11th-best so far in August, and with a ridiculous .391/.448/.736 slash line this month, Pete Alonso is doing Pete Alonso things, leading the league in RBI’s. So far, the Orioles haven’t really missed Adley Rutschmann or Taylor Ward, their two trade deadline departures. Their bullpen has also stepped up in the second half, posting a 3.29 mark, as although they traded one of their best relievers in Tyler Wells, Josh Walker, Cam Sanders, and Alex Hoppe have all stepped into bullpen roles nicely. Hoppe, in fact, posted a 5.79 ERA with the Seattle Mariners before being included in the Ward deal, but he’s pitched 7.1 innings of scoreless ball so far in Baltimore. If Alonso stays hot, Jackson Holliday finds his bat again, and the bullpen keeps producing, the Orioles could definitely make some noise down the stretch.
At 66-68, the Cardinals have technically been the better team, but the NL is much more competitive than the AL this season, and that record is only good enough to put St. Louis six games behind the final Wild Card spot, virtually out of contention with a month left in the regular season. At any rate, the Cardinals have gone the other way after the All-Star break, going just 16-23, including a 12-12 mark in August. They’ve had the ninth-best offense this month, because it’s hard to do much worse than that with Jordan Walker posting a .926 OPS over his last 10 games, but likely Rookie of the Year JJ Wetherholt has struggled offensively since the All-Star break and trading veteran Lars Nootbaar at the trade deadline will likely hurt in the long run. Plus, St. Louis has had the eighth-worst pitching staff this month, as its bullpen has posted an ERA north of 5. Trade deadline acquisition Caleb Ferguson has been poor, and All-Star closer Riley O’Brien has seen his ERA balloon more than a full run after two consecutive disastrous outings.
Rogers hasn’t been as spectacular as he was in 2025, when he posted a 1.81 ERA but was limited to 18 starts because of injury. However, a 4.14 mark in 24 starts is certainly reliable, and since the start of June, he’s been back to ace-level form, recording a 2.57 mark across 14 outings and allowing three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his appearances. Statcast suggests that Rogers has still been unlucky in the aggregate; his 3.86 expected ERA sits in the 59th percentile. Rogers’ biggest strengths are his abilities to generate chases and to avoid walks, and St. Louis ranks right near the league median in both stats as is. However, he does rank near the bottom third in both whiff and strikeout rate, and the Cardinals have solid bat-to-ball skills, and Baltimore has been a below-average fielding team overall. St. Louis also ranks fifth in hard-hit rate and sixth in average exit velocity, and Rogers ranks slightly below the median in both stats. However, the splits should be in his favor; unlike most of his teammates, Rogers has actually been slightly better on the road, and the Cardinals have had the second-worst home offense in baseball this season.
Graceffo has made just one prior appearance as an opener, when he went 3.1 innings and gave up three runs as a rookie in 2024. He’s been solid overall in his third season, pitching to a 3.13 ERA in 63.1 innings, although he hasn’t pitched more than 2.1 innings or thrown more than 47 pitches in any outing this season, so it’s likely that he’ll be just a one- or two-inning opener. Winquest, too, has been a reliever in the minors, tossing no more than 2.0 innings in any appearance, and given that he last pitched on Tuesday, he, too, likely won’t pitch more than one inning tonight in his debut. Justin Bruihl could be available for a larger workload, given that he hasn’t taken the mound since Sunday and has previously pitched into a third inning of work on zero days’ rest, but besides that, none of the other St. Louis relievers are trustworthy. Trusting a bottom-seven bullpen to handle a full nine innings instead of, like expected, calling up a Triple-A starter like Cooper Hjerpe, could prove a questionable decision, especially with no off day until August 31.
Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+135)
This isn’t necessarily about Hjerpe’s quality as much as it is about his length limitations and St. Louis’ bullpen. If Baltimore can work the count and draw walks, it could force the Cardinals’ relievers to have to go six innings, opening up all sorts of offensive possibilities.
Strong Lean: Trevor Rogers 6+ Strikeouts (+157)
These are excellent odds for Rogers, who’s struck out six or more batters in six of his seven starts since the All-Star break. St. Louis doesn’t strike out a ton, but these are still too friendly to pass up.
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