Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s truncated evening slate: Jac Caglianone and Andrew Vaughn.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | +390 | Caglianone is slashing an impressive .382/.405/.658 in August with a 191 wRC+. In 2026 as a whole, the outfielder owns 98th percentile bat speed (77.3%), and that’s translated into a 98th percentile hard hit rate (54.6%) and a 96th percentile expected slugging rate (.506). Now, he’ll get to face-off with Spencer Arrighetti, who has surrendered 1.62 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. |
| Andrew Vaughn | +541 | In his 105 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Vaughn is slashing .360/.457/.584 with a .225 ISO and a 187 wRC+. That sets-up a very favorable matchup this evening against Sean Manaea. Manaea is conceding 1.70 opponent long balls per nine in his 13 starts, while he’s also in possession of a fifth percentile opponent barrel rate in all of 2026 (11.3%). |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Jac Caglianone 1+ Home Run (+390)
Caglianone was back in the lineup on Wednesday after missing Tuesday’s contest with an ankle issue. Injury is seemingly the only thing that can slow down the former sixth-overall pick this month, as Caglianone is slashing an impressive .382/.405/.658 in August with a 191 wRC+. Not too shabby at all. The sophomore’s success probably shouldn’t come as a shock. Caglianone has all the tools to be a star. In 2026, the outfielder owns 98th percentile bat speed (77.3%), and that’s translated into a 98th percentile hard hit rate (54.6%) and a 96th percentile expected slugging rate (.506). Now, he’ll get to face-off with Spencer Arrighetti and a taxed Toronto bullpen. Specific to Arrighetti, the RHP has surrendered 1.62 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs this season.
Andrew Vaughn 1+ Home Run (+541)
Vaughn has long been a successful platoon bat, but he’s taken things to a new level this season. In his 105 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Vaughn is slashing .360/.457/.584 with a .225 ISO and a 187 wRC+. While that doesn’t change the fact that the former third-overall pick hasn’t gone deep since August 4, it does set-up a very favorable matchup this evening against Sean Manaea. The veteran southpaw deserves credit for transitioning from the bullpen to the Mets’ rotation mid-season, but it would be fair to say that Manaea has struggled as a starter in 2026. Manaea is conceding 1.70 opponent long balls per nine in his 13 starts, while he’s also in possession of a fifth percentile opponent barrel rate for 2026 as a whole (11.3%).
