Best BvP Matchups & Stats for Thursday, August 27

BvP. It’s maybe the most polarizing stat in the world of daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting.

While it would seem obvious that a batter’s history with a specific pitcher would be incredibly important and useful information, BvP numbers laugh in the face of sample size. They not only make us draw conclusions from an amount of at-bats that could take place over the course of two or three games, but remember, those games could have happened a half decade ago.

That said, I’d want to know if someone has a couple home runs of a starter that’s pitching tonight. Who wouldn’t?

In this space, I’ll attempt to toe the line between BvP love and hate. Let’s look at some matchups and see if history really is going to mean success on tonight’s slate.

Best BvP Stats for August 27

**Minimum seven at-bats**

BvP Matchup Analysis

William Contreras vs. Sean Manaea | 1.375 OPS (8 ABs)

I should note off the top that these are regular season BvP statistics. Technically, Contreras has seen Manaea three more times in the postseason, where he went 1-for-3 with a single. Regardless, here’s what you need to know about this matchup and how it pertains to this duo meeting in 2026: Contreras has always hit LHPs well and Manaea is currently struggling as a starter. This season has not been Contreras’ strongest, but for his career, the backstop is hitting .301 with a 143 wRC+ against southpaws. That’s a sample of over 800 plate appearances, too. Then there’s Manaea. The veteran is conceding 1.70 opponent long balls per nine in his 13 starts, while he’s also in possession of a fifth percentile opponent barrel rate for 2026 as a whole (11.3%). It’s not ideal. Look for Contreras’ success in this matchup to continue.

Freddie Freeman vs. Chris Sale | 1.333 OPS (12 ABs)

This is a fun one. Two future Hall of Fame players, who somewhat surprisingly, haven’t had their paths cross all that often. Even at 37-years-old, Sale has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, maintaining a 2.20 ERA and a 2.24 FIP across 135.0 innings of work. As you might expect, it’s been very hard to hit a home run off Sale this season. In fact, only one left-hander batter has accomplished the feat in five months: Freddie Freeman. Back on May 8 in Los Angeles, Freeman led off the sixth inning with a deep solo shot — his 100th career homer as a member of the Dodgers. That said, Freeman’s .711 OPS in left-on-left matchups in 2026 is nearly 200 points lower than his mark against RHPs. This is probably not a spot you want to exploit in DFS or betting.

Nolan Arenado vs. Landen Roupp | 1.182 OPS (11 ABs)

Tonight will be the fourth time in 2026 that Roupp has faced the Diamondbacks, so these two have seen a lot of each other lately. In fact, three of Arenado’s five career hits off Roupp have come since May 19. In general, Roupp has extremely neutral splits in his 25 starts, but the right-hander has been looking a little ragged in recent weeks, pitching to a 6.20 ERA in his last five appearances. That might be why this outing was pushed back from Wednesday to Thursday in the first place. As for Arenado, the former All-Star has always been known as a lefty-masher, so his prosperity against Roupp is a little odd — particularly as the RHP’s whole MLB career has come in Arenado’s twilight. The 35-year-old has mustered just fourth percentile average exit velocity in 2026 (85.1). I don’t really trust him in any matchup, anymore.