Another high-stakes showdown is on tap this evening in New York. The Astros (66-67) hold a slim half-game lead over the Rangers for first place in the AL West. Houston will attempt to bolster its record, but it won’t be easy. The Yankees (75-57), owners of the American League’s second-best record, are chasing down the Rays for the AL East title. Which of these two rivals will come out on top tonight?
The Yankees are favorites (-154) over the Astros; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s matchup between Houston and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Yankees -1.5 (+128): Cole is the superior arm in this matchup by a decent margin. That alone shifts the advantage decisively in New York’s favor. To boot, this Yankees offense finally appears to be waking up. Expect the Pinstripes to deliver a comfortable win on Thursday.
Astros vs. Yankees prediction, preview
A beleaguered Astros pitching staff will turn to Hayden Wesneski tonight. The former Yankees farmhand has been decent, when healthy. Unfortunately, that’s been a major caveat throughout his fifth-year MLB career. Wesneski has taken the mound on just five occasions this season, still shaking off the rust well into August. During that time, the right-hander has notched a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22 strikeouts (7.2 K/9). Most recently, he tossed five scoreless frames against the Athletics. However, this could be a far more difficult matchup. Wesneski has often had trouble keeping the ball in the park; he’s on the hook for a career 1.6 HR/9 ratio. New York has clubbed an AL-best 183 home runs.
Houston’s hurler will need to keep the ball on the ground tonight, easier said than done with the short porch in right field. New York’s offense has been disappointing for most of the summer, clearly missing Aaron Judge (rib). Still, the Pinstripes have racked up a combined 16 runs during the first two games of this series. Leading the way is midseason pickup Luis Garcia Jr.; the former Nationals slugger has crushed four homers over his previous 21 at-bats. A mediocre Astros bullpen (4.13 ERA) has been worked hard this week; that places added pressure on Wesneski to provide length on Thursday.
The Yankees should have far more confidence in their pitching tonight. Gerrit Cole, despite missing all of 2025, hasn’t skipped a beat. The former Cy Young winner, since making his season debut in May, has looked like his old self. Over 92.2 innings (16 starts), he’s put up a 3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 100 strikeouts (9.7 K/9). The 35-year-old ranks within the 80th percentile or better in xERA (3.29), fastball velocity (96.8 MPH) and walk rate (5.3%). Cole has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last five appearances, coming into Thursday with momentum.
New York’s grizzled veteran now gets the chance to take on his former employer. The Astros have been carried all season by their lineup, headlined by MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez. As a unit, the team is tenth in runs (608), fourth in homers (177) and tenth in OPS (.728). However, it’s safe to say this group has hit a bit of a rut in recent weeks. Houston has scored 80 runs over its last 20 games, ninth-fewest in the majors during this time. That’s not exactly a great sign heading into a matchup with one of the sport’s premier arms.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+128)
Wesneski isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but this isn’t a great spot. His tendency to cough up homers doesn’t inspire confidence at Yankee Stadium. New York’s lineup, underperforming for weeks, is beginning to play up to its potential. On the other side, Houston’s recent offensive slump isn’t ideal when facing an elite pitcher such as Cole. All signs are pointing to a multi-run victory for the home team.
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