With a month remaining in the MLB regular season, the NL Wild Card race appears to be down to a race of four teams for three spots, with the Arizona Diamondbacks on the outside looking in, half a game behind the San Diego Padres.
Arizona is coming off of a critical 2-1 series win over the Chicago Cubs, who currently hold the top Wild Card spot, five games better than the Diamondbacks. They’ll now have a golden opportunity to claw back some ground with a four-game road series against the San Francisco Giants, who would sit in the NL’s cellar if not for the Colorado Rockies.
Tonight’s series opener is set to begin at 9:45 p.m. ET. Arizona will start Jose Cabrera, and Landen Roupp will toe the rubber for San Francisco.
Let’s break down this divisional battle with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Best Bets
- San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-103): Even though the Diamondbacks won the first two games of the series, I’m not sure that they should be favored with Cabrera — a pitcher with a 5.80 ERA at the Triple-A level — on the mound.
- Rafael Devers 1+ Singles (+112): Devers has been seeing the ball well as of late, collecting a hit in seven of his last eight games, and while he hits a lot of homers, Cabrera has been good at keeping the ball in the park.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
The Diamondbacks heated up right before the All-Star break with a sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers and have stayed pretty hot ever since, posting a 22-16 record in their first 38 games of the second half. This month, they actually rank fourth in OPS, more in line with where they finished in 2024 (second) and 2025 (fifth), and although Ketel Marte is on the injured list, Gabriel Moreno has emerged as this season’s breakout star. Rookie Ryan Waldschmidt has also posted an .839 OPS since the All-Star break, and while new acquisition Lars Nootbaar has been awful, his track record is such that he should be expected to turn it around at some point. Overall, Arizona’s pitching has been inconsistent, but it ranks 20th in ERA in August, as fill-in options Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake haven’t quite provided enough depth beyond breakout ace Eduardo Rodríguez. In the bullpen, Taylor Clarke, Juan Morillo, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Brandyn Garcia all have sub-3 ERA’s and high innings counts, but their other options have been more of a mixed bag.
The Giants, on the other hand, are on track to finish with their worst record since 2017, a stretch that included one magical division title and eight missed postseason appearances. However, given that San Francisco has finished within four games of .500 in each of the past four seasons, it’s arguable that a proper rebuild has been long overdue. This month, the Giants have expectedly collapsed offensively after trading Luis Arraez and Heliot Ramos at the trade deadline and losing Casey Schmitt and Matt Chapman to long-term injuries, ranking just 26th in OPS. Their starters have still been respectable (4.42 ERA) and their bullpen has posted a sub-4 mark in August even though they dealt ace Robbie Ray and relievers Caleb Killian and Erik Miller, but pairing the 19th-best pitching staff with the 26th-best offense doesn’t usually result in wins. As a result, San Francisco is just 7-16 this month, the second-worst record in baseball.
Cabrera is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Reno to make his fifth career start, but the first four didn’t go so well, as he gave up three or more earned runs in each of his last three starts in the majors. Additionally, his numbers for the Aces aren’t exactly impeccable, as he has a 5.80 ERA in nine starts at that level, including a 3.2-inning, eight-run disaster last Friday against the Salt Lake City Bees. The Pacific Coast League isn’t the easiest league to pitch in, because many of the stadiums sit at high altitude in dry desert conditions, but those numbers still aren’t encouraging. Unsurprisingly, in his four MLB starts, he’d have a bottom-decile expected ERA if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, and he’s especially struggled to induce chases, mitigating one of the Giants’ biggest weaknesses. While he has been okay at avoiding walks, especially in the minors, that’s not a strength of San Francisco’s anyway. He also doesn’t allow a ton of hard hits, another weakness of the Giants’. He’s been somewhat better on the road across all three levels at which he’s pitched, but it’s not like his road mark (4.39 ERA) is particularly stellar.
Roupp, despite a mediocre season, should have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Though he leads the league in losses, that’s more a function of San Francisco’s offense, as a 4.34 ERA isn’t terrible, and he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 25 starts. However, Roupp isn’t in good form; he’s allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts, pitching to a 6.20 ERA across that span. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten pretty unlucky; his 3.75 xERA ranks in the 63rd percentile. His only real weakness is his 18th-percentile walk rate, and the Diamondbacks have drawn free passes at a below-average clip. Additionally, he ranks in the top octile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity, causing even more problems for a lineup that lacks raw pop. He’s been slightly better at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, and Arizona has been much worse away from hitter-friendly Chase Field.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-103)
Although the Diamondbacks won each of the first two games of the series, Cabrera is just such an unknown quantity and Roupp, despite his recent form, a solid pitcher. I’m not sure Cabrera has shown enough to inspire any confidence.
Strong Lean: Rafael Devers 1+ Singles (+112)
Devers has gotten a hit in seven of his last eight games, and while he’s had a homer in each of the past three, one of Cabrera’s strengths is not allowing hard hits.
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