Despite sitting four games under .500, the Blue Jays (65-69) still have a shot at reaching the postseason. If Toronto wants to earn a wild card spot, that means taking care of business against some of the American League’s worst clubs. That includes the Royals (59-75), stuck at the bottom of the AL Central division. Can the Jays earn a series victory on Thursday against Kansas City?
The Royals are favorites (-105) over the Blue Jays; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s matchup between Kansas City and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Royals vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-125): Cameron alone could carry the under tonight against a dismal Blue Jays offense. Arrighetti is less of a sure thing, but he’s had flashes of greatness this season. Facing a subpar Royals lineup could give Toronto’s starter an added boost on Thursday.
Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Kansas City coming into this one as favorites might surprise casual fans. However, that would be short-sighted. After all, starting pitcher Noah Cameron has emerged as an essential piece to this rotation. Over his previous eight appearances, the left-hander has recorded a 2.72 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. That includes two straight scoreless outings, against the Tigers and Angels respectively. Cameron doesn’t possess wipeout stuff, instead preferring to induce batters into weak contact. Decent command of the strike zone (2.9 BB/9) has helped the second-year pro as well.
There’s a decent chance Cameron continues to dominate when he takes the mound this evening. The southpaw’s recent success is only part of the equation. Tonight’s opponents, the Blue Jays, have been horrendous at the plate. As a unit, they’re averaging an MLB-worst 3.93 runs per game. To make matters worse, Thursday’s game presents major matchup problems for Canada’s team. Toronto has recorded a .641 OPS against left-handed pitching, second-worst in the majors. Just three players on the active roster (min. 100 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100 this season.
The Jays will hand the ball to an unproven arm tonight in Spencer Arrighetti. Acquired midseason from the Astros, it’s easy to understand why Toronto took a chance here. At his best, the right-hander can deliver strikeouts seemingly at will. However, shaky command (5.1 BB/9) has been his ultimate undoing. This season, the 26-year-old has accounted for a 4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 91 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). During his team debut last week, Arrighetti surrendered three runs in 3.1 innings against the Yankees. Still, there’s reason for optimism here. A 92nd percentile hard-hit rate (31.1%), paired with swing and miss stuff, is difficult to ignore.
It’s not as if the Jays will be taking on a star-studded lineup this evening. The Royals do roster a handful of standouts, including All-Star Bobby Witt Jr. (127 wRC+) and young slugger Jac Caglianone (122 wRC+). Still, as a group, this offense leaves much to be desired. That’s especially true away from home, where they’ve delivered some drastic splits. Kansas City is averaging 3.54 runs per game on the road, worst in baseball. When Arrighetti last faced KC, he allowed four runs over six innings on the road. At the friendly confines of Rogers Centre, an even better showing could be on tap tonight.
Best Bet: Royals vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-125)
Cameron isn’t an ace just yet, but he’s pitched like one over the past few weeks. A date with Toronto’s terrible lineup doesn’t pose too many issues. On the other side, Arrighetti could find success against a Royals lineup that doesn’t generate many runs on the road. Given the struggles for both of these offenses, 8.5 feels like enough to feel confident in the under.
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