In 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers were swept in the National League Championship Series by the Los Angeles Dodgers despite having home field advantage, and with those two teams having once again separated themselves atop the league in 2026, it’s more than plausible that those two teams will meet in the LCS again this season.
The difference last season, though, was that Jacob Misiorowski wasn’t quite Jacob Misiorowski yet, but now he’s having one of the best seasons in baseball history. He’ll have a chance to make another statement tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET, as the Brewers go for a series win over the New York Mets. Sean Manaea will oppose him for New York.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Best Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-105): Given that Milwaukee will follow up five or six innings of Misiorowski with arguably the league’s best and hottest bullpen, it might need just two runs to win this game by multiple, and Manaea has given up four in each of his last two starts.
- Jacob Misiorowski U6.5 Hits + Walks + Earned Runs Allowed (-113): Misiorowski has somehow allowed a .144 batting average on the road this season to go along with his 88th-percentile walk rate, so there’s not much of an opportunity here for the Mets to impart damage.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets prediction, preview
Although Milwaukee hasn’t quite guaranteed itself the AL Central title, given that it’s 6.5 games ahead of the Chicago Cubs and still has seven games remaining against them, it has been the best team in the NL all season, and it would be a massive shock if the Brewers didn’t ultimately end up winning the division. But, with a 23-14 record after the All-Star break, it’s likely that Milwaukee will continue pursuing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Its offense has dipped slightly this month, to just 16th in OPS, but Brice Turang is a good bet to get back on track and Jake Bauers’ tremendous form should be sustainable. Top overall prospect Jesús Made is also an outside candidate for a September call-up. Additionally, the Brewers’ pitching has been spectacular, with their bullpen posting a sub-2 ERA in August. Misiorowski is joined by Logan Henderson and Kyle Harrison in what could be arguably the strongest top three in the postseason, and their bullpen could be basically un-hittable once Abner Uribe, who last allowed a run on June 19, returns from his injury.
The Mets have been pretty good as of late, posting a 20-16 record since the All-Star break, and while their horrific first half of the season means they certainly won’t make the playoffs, there’s at least the slimmest of chances that they finish the season near .500. New York’s offense has actually been baseball’s seventh-best this month even though Juan Soto remains out with a calf injury, as Francisco Lindor remembered how to hit after the All-Star break and has maintained it so far in August. Bo Bichette has also posted an .895 OPS since the start of the month, and rookie Carson Benge is making a late challenge for Rookie of the Year. Furthermore, the Mets have actually had an above-average pitching staff this month, as despite completely tearing down their staff at the trade deadline, rookie Zac Thornton and Manaea have stepped up, and rookie relievers Nate Lavender and Jefry Yan have joined starter-turned-closer Kodai Senga in a surprisingly effective bullpen.
With Misiorowski on the mound, New York will be in for a long night. He leads all of baseball in ERA, shutouts, strikeouts, ERA+, WHIP, hits per nine innings, strikeouts per nine innings, strikeout-to-walk ratio, championship win probability added, and base-out runs saved. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in every single start, including one or fewer in four of his last six. Misiorowski’s Baseball Savant page is a sea of red; he ranks in the 100th percentile in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, pitching run value, and fastball run value. The Mets’ biggest strength is their 41.2% hard-hit percentage, which ranks third league-wide, and while that’s Misiorowski’s second-weakest attribute, he still ranks in the 86th percentile in that stat. Comparatively, he struggles to induce grounders, ranking in only the 65th percentile, but New York has been worse-than-average at getting the ball up as is. Plus, as if he needed any more help, the Mets have been slightly worse at home, with an OPS 15 points lower. Misiorowski has been slightly worse on the road, but a 1.75 ERA is still a virtually untouchable mark.
Manaea has been pitching decently since stepping back into a bulk role at the start of June, pitching to a 3.80 ERA across 13 starts and two long relief appearances, but he’s struggled a bit in each of his past two starts, allowing four earned runs in each. In general, advanced numbers don’t paint a particularly positive picture of him, as he ranks in only the 20th percentile in expected ERA and the 11th in pitching run value (although those numbers also account for his poor stint out of the bullpen prior). At least the 34-year-old has both an above-median strikeout rate and walk rate, which could help mitigate one of Milwaukee’s biggest strengths. However, Manaea also ranks in just the 30th percentile in whiff rate, and the Brewers have some of the best contact skills in the league. Additionally, he ranks in just the fifth percentile in barrel rate and the 19th in hard-hit rate, and Milwaukee has quietly been among the league’s best power-hitting teams, generating hard hits at the eighth-highest rate. The location splits should be slightly in his advantage, since the Brewers have had a pretty mediocre offense on the road, but it’s going to be difficult for him to out-duel Misiorowski.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-105)
When The Miz is on the mound, anything is possible; Milwaukee has won by multiple runs in 13 of his 24 starts. New York has lost by multiple runs in six of Manaea’s 15 bulk appearances.
Strong Lean: Jacob Misiorowski U6.5 Hits + Walks + Earned Runs Allowed (-113)
Misiorowski has allowed six or fewer H/BB/ER in six of his last eight starts, and the Mets rank 15th or lower in hits, walks, and runs scored since the start of August, so even a slightly below-average start should get the job done for The Miz..
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