The National League Wild Card race is starting to crystallize, as three teams separated by two games (the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks) are fighting for two spots in the postseason.
The Padres hurt their postseason chances slightly last night with a 2-1 loss to the New York Mets, whose surge is almost certainly coming too late to result in a playoff place. They’ll play the middle game of the series tonight in what is effectively a must-win.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Trade deadline acquisition Robbie Ray is scheduled to start for San Diego, and Zac Thornton will toe the rubber for New York.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets Best Bets
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (-109): Both of these teams have been pretty good since the All-Star break, but the Padres have been hotter for longer, and Ray has proven more as a long-term starter than Thornton.
- Over 8.5 (-113): Although the first game of the series went under the total, I like this one to go over. Both Thornton and Ray have better raw numbers than their advanced stats might suggest, so some regression wouldn’t be a shock.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets prediction, preview
The Padres had only around a 10% chance of making the postseason at the All-Star break, per FanGraphs, but they got hot at the right time, going 19-11 since. That included a stretch of eight wins in nine games right before the trade deadline that incentivized San Diego not to sell. For the season, the Padres still only have the eighth-lowest OPS, but since the Midsummer Classic, they’ve been baseball’s best on that side of the ball, as Ty France has continued his quietly exceptional season and Fernando Tatis Jr. has found his bat. Additionally, San Diego has had a top-10 pitching staff since the All-Star break; despite Ray’s poor first two starts and the lack of rotational depth overall, the Padres have one of baseball’s best bullpens, with Mason Miller producing one of the best relief seasons ever and Adrián Morejón, Bradgley Rodriguez, and Yuki Matsui chipping in as well. If San Diego’s offense stays hot, it has all the tools to challenge one of the NL’s top teams in the playoffs, though it will certainly be an underdog in a series against any of the division champs.
Meanwhile, the Mets have gotten hot at the wrong time. New York has been effectively out of the playoff picture since April, when it lost 12 games in a row, but since the All-Star break, it has gone a solid 17-12. Like the Padres’, the Mets’ talented offense has finally woken up, posting the 11th-best OPS across that span even with Juan Soto out since July 24 with a calf strain. Rookie AJ Ewing looks like a lone bright spot in a miserable season, and Francisco Lindor has quietly posted a .915 OPS since the Midsummer Classic. Additionally, New York overhauled its pitching at the trade deadline, sending away starters Clay Holmes and Freddy Peralta as well as relievers Huascar Brazobán, Luke Weaver, and Brooks Raley, but somehow, its bullpen has a 2.70 ERA in August, one of baseball’s best marks. Prospects Nate Lavender, Jefry Yan, and Jack Weisenberger have been spectacular, and Yan has added some needed flair to the organization. The Mets won’t contend this season, but 2027 could carry renewed promise.
Ray has had a bad first two starts with the Padres, giving up six earned runs in nine innings while walking eight and striking out only six, but given the strong form he was in right before the trade deadline with the San Francisco Giants (a 1.65 ERA in June and July), there’s reason to expect somewhat of a bounce-back. Still, advanced numbers aren’t too kind to him, as he has just a 29th-percentile expected ERA and ranks below the median in every single Statcast category except for hard-hit percentage, which is New York’s biggest strength as is. He’s particularly struggled with walks, ranking in just the 14th percentile in walk rate, and the Mets have still earned the 10th-most free passes over the last 30 days despite missing Soto for most of that period. To be fair, New York’s slight propensity to hit grounders could help mitigate one of Ray’s other biggest weaknesses, but location splits aren’t in his favor, as he’s been more than a full run worse on the road and the Mets have performed similarly whether at home or on the road.
Thornton has similarly over-performed relative to expectations. The rookie wasn’t as widely ballyhooed as Nolan McLean or Jonah Tong last season, but he’s been brilliant across his first eight MLB starts, pitching to a 2.78 ERA and giving up three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts. In particular, he’s posted a 2.31 mark since earning a full-time rotation spot on July 12. However, he could be due for a rough outing, as he sports a 19th-percentile expected ERA and a 12th-percentile expected batting average. He’s particularly struggled to generate whiffs or strikeouts, ranking in the bottom decile in both stats, and San Diego has pretty solid contact skills as is. Plus, the Padres, who operate a relatively disciplined plate approach, are well-suited to take mitigate his biggest strength, and he hasn’t been all that great at inducing grounders, one of San Diego’s biggest weaknesses. To be fair, his numbers should be somewhat sustainable because he has the league’s fifth-best defense by Defensive Runs Saved, but that alone won’t be enough to insulate him from potential luck normalization. He’s been slightly better at home across all levels, but San Diego’s offense has been better on the road.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Diego Padres Moneyline (-109)
This is just about as close to a toss-up as it gets, but with Soto out of New York’s lineup, I simply trust the Padres’ offense to be more sustainable than the Mets’, and while both Ray and Thornton have out-performed their expected numbers this season, Ray is the pitcher with the better track record.
Strong Lean: Over 8.5 (-113)
Ray has arguably suffered the regression that expected numbers suggest he’s deserved, but Thornton (a rough MLB debut in May aside) hasn’t yet taken his licks. A white-hot San Diego offense could be just the team to provide his welcome-to-the-bigs moment.
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