Few teams in baseball have been as good as the Tigers (61-64) in recent weeks. Detroit has earned a 24-15 record since July 1st, surging towards postseason contention in the wide-open American League. On the other side, the Pirates (61-66) are losing ground in their own quest to reach the playoffs. If Pittsburgh is going to vault itself back into the race, it’ll need to take care of business at home. Can the Buccos even up this series tonight at PNC Park?
The Pirates are favorites (-140) over the Tigers; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Detroit and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Pirates pick, best bet today
- Tigers ML (+131): In a battle between two evenly-matched clubs, take the team with much better odds. Detroit has been swinging it well as of late, and Montero is a capable hurler. With respect to Ashcraft, I’d much rather back the visitors at plus money.
Tigers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Even without Tarik Skubal, the Tigers wield a solid collection of arms. Keider Montero isn’t a big name, but he’s been everything Detroit could have asked for this season. Over 128.2 innings pitched (20 starts), the right-hander has notched a 3.22 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 86 strikeouts ( K/9). The 26-year-old’s greatest strength is elite command; he’s posted a 2.0 BB/9 ratio. To boot, he also excels at limiting home runs (0.9 HR/9). During Montero’s most recent outing last week vs. Cleveland, he tossed 6.1 scoreless, three-hit innings.
On paper, tonight’s matchup could prove difficult. The Pirates are averaging 5.02 runs per game, third-most in the majors. That number rises to 5.39 when this lineup steps up to the plate at home. Although Pittsburgh is a force offensively, the team hasn’t been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks. Over their last 15 games, the Pirates have scored the 12th-fewest runs in baseball (62). Two key components of this Pirates offense are earning walks and hitting homers. As previously mentioned, Montero excels when it comes to command and limiting the long ball.
When it comes to off-speed pitches, Detroit’s hurler leans on a slider (19%), changeup (14%) and curveball (14%) trio. Against those three offerings, Pittsburgh batters have delivered an uninspiring .227/.281/.376 slash line this season.
On the other side, Braxton Ashcraft will get the nod for the Pirates. He’s certainly not an ace, but the 26-year-old has established himself as a solid piece in Pittsburgh’s rotation. Through 141.1 innings of work (24 starts), he’s delivered a 3.82 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 155 strikeouts (9.9 K/9). The righty possesses a rare combination of stellar control and wipeout stuff. He ranks within the 81st percentile or better in chase rate (37.1%), strikeout rate (27.0%) and walk rate (6.7%). During Ashcraft’s last appearance, he tossed a nine-inning, one-run masterpiece in Miami.
The Tigers have been one of the American League’s better units at the plate. They’re averaging 4.58 runs per game, 11th-most in the big leagues this season. It’s worth noting that they’ve been slightly better when it comes to hitting the ball on the road (4.68). This offense has its fair share of standouts, with seven different batters (min. 100 plate appearances) recording a wRC+ above 100. Leading the charge is the trio of Kevin McGonigle (132 wRC+), Riley Greene (129 wRC+) and Dillon Dingler (127 wRC+). Detroit is tied for third in the sport with 87 runs scored since August 1st.
Best Bet: Tigers ML (+131)
The Tigers have been one of the league’s better teams since the start of July. Ashcraft is a good pitcher, but he’s prone to the occasional letdown outing. Montero, if nothing else, won’t hurt himself with careless walks or multiple home run balls. Given Pittsburgh’s recent slump on offense, Detroit makes far more sense tonight at plus money.
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