Yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds split a doubleheader at Great American Ball Park. Today, they’re back in action at 6:40 p.m. ET as these NL Central rivals battle again.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cardinals vs. Reds game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Reds prediction, preview
For much of the season, the Cardinals flirted with the possibility of a postseason berth in the Wild Card race. Now, that’s looking a little less likely after going 14-17 since the All-Star break and showing signs of weakness, but they remain above .500 at 64-26 with a +7 run differential. Moreover, they’re still only three games out of the playoffs. The Reds are working to salvage what seemed like a lost campaign, and while they’re 60-65 on the year with a -86 differential, they’ve gone 17-13 since the break themselves.
RHP Kyle Leahy (9-4) gets the start for St. Louis today amidst a very solid season. He’s kept his ERA down at 3.38 with a 1.34 WHIP, racking up 105 strikeouts across 117.1 IP. The 21.1% K% isn’t amazing, but it’s respectable, and a 7.0% BB% is better than the league average. The Cardinals’ bullpen is an average unit as well, ranking 19th in ERA at 4.22 with a 1.36 WHIP and a low 9.7% K-BB%.
Cincinnati sends out LHP Andrew Abbott (6-7), who has a 4.13 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 133.0 IP this season. He’s struck out only 102 batters, providing a 17.6% K% while also holding an 11.1% BB% on the other end. The Reds’ relief staff ranks 25th in ERA with a 4.58 mark, while a 1.43 WHIP and 9.5% K-BB% are both uninspiring.
It’s worth noting that neither offense has been great since the All-Star break. Cincinnati has an OPS of .687 since then which falls 20th overall while ranking 21st in runs scored over this span. Likewise, St. Louis’ .668 OPS is 25th, though the club sits 14th in scoring over the same sample. What we’ve seen over the entire sample this year is that the Reds are heavily reliant on power with a .167 ISO and 163 homers, sixth most in baseball; the Cardinals lack the same power upside with a low .141 ISO and 130 dingers, good for 22nd – though perhaps top prospect Joshua Baez can help with that after homering three times in his recent debut.
Cardinals vs. Reds pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cardinals as a -114 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Reds enter as +106 underdogs at their own ballpark. The total is set at nine combined runs.
Yesterday, we got a low-scoring 2-1 win for St. Louis before a 6-5 revenge game for Cincinnati. The range of outcomes is wide, but that’s baseball. However, I do like the Reds here, or at least the over on their team total. They get an advantageous matchup for slugging since Leahy has a 47.7% hard-hit rate that ranks in the bottom 2% of MLB pitchers, while his 91.3 mph average exit velocity is in the bottom 3% of arms. A 12th-percentile barrel rate is also concerning for him against a lineup that can certainly take pitchers yard, so I think we’ll see plenty of hard contact from Cincy as the group posts at least five runs tonight.
