Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s full slate: Jo Adell, Wilyer Abreu and Hunter Goodman.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | +439 | In 145 plate appearances against LHPs, Adell is slashing .303/.345/.538 with a .280 ISO and a 154 wRC+. Adell also has 11 home runs off of southpaws, which was tied for the most among all AL hitters on Monday, prior to Coby Mayo going deep in Tampa for his 12th. Meanwhile, at the MLB level, Carson Whisenhunt has pitched to a 6.13 xERA and allowed opposing RHBs to club 2.23 long balls per nine. |
| Wilyer Abreu | +409 | Two hitters have double-digit home runs since the All-Star break: Matt Olson and Abreu, who each have 11. It’s a span of time where Abreu’s .420 expected wOBA is also the fourth-highest mark among all qualified players. Conversely, Merrill Kelly enters the day with first percentile marks in xERA (7.15) and opponent expected batting average (.302), while additionally owning a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.7%). |
| Hunter Goodman | +245 | Eric Lauer has managed to combine a fifth percentile strikeout rate (15.1%) with a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (10.7%). It’s no wonder he’s given up 2.01 home runs per nine for the season as a whole. It’s not like Goodman needs help finding a barrel, either, not according to his 97th percentile barrel rate (16.7%). Now add in some altitude at Coors. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Jo Adell 1+ Home Run (+439)
Adell hasn’t done many things well in 2026. In fact, with his defensive inefficiencies, the former 10th-overall pick has sort of been a one-tool player. What is that one defining skill? Hitting left-handed pitching. In 145 plate appearances within the split, Adell is slashing .303/.345/.538 with a .280 ISO and a 154 wRC+. Adell also has 11 home runs off of southpaws, which was actually tied for the most among all AL hitters on Monday, prior to Coby Mayo taking Shane McClanahan deep in Tampa for his 12th. Adell will be looking to do the same versus Carson Whisenhunt. The rookie only has 11 career starts at the MLB level, and he’s pitched to a 6.13 xERA and allowed opposing RHBs to club 2.23 long balls per nine. Seems like Adell’s presence could be an issue.
Wilyer Abreu 1+ Home Run (+409)
Two hitters have double-digit home runs since the All-Star break: Matt Olson and Abreu, who each have 11. It’s a span of time where Abreu’s .420 expected wOBA is also the fourth-highest mark among all qualified players. To suggest that the outfielder has been swinging the bat well lately, would be a massive understatement. Now, Abreu and the rest of the Red Sox will get the opportunity to tee-off on the husk of Merrill Kelly at Fenway Park. The veteran RHP enters the day with first percentile marks in xERA (7.15) and opponent expected batting average (.302), while additionally owning a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.7%). It should come as little surprise that Kelly’s conceded 2.09 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs in 2026. Woof.
Hunter Goodman 1+ Home Run (+245)
It’s pretty wild that we have a catcher hunting the 50 home run plateau for a second straight season. Goodman would need 16 more in the final six weeks of the season — a herculean task — but the climb starts tonight, at Coors, against Eric Lauer. It continues to baffle me that Lauer is able to rack up quality starts with the Dodgers, as the left-hander is in possession of some fairly terrible statistics in 2026. To wit, Lauer has managed to combine a fifth percentile strikeout rate (15.1%) with a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (10.7%). It’s no wonder he’s given up 2.01 home runs per nine for the season as a whole. It’s not like Goodman needs help finding a barrel, either, not according to his 97th percentile barrel rate (16.7%). Add in the altitude and the Rockies’ backstop is clearly in an advantageous spot, if he’s able to play through a shoulder issue.
