A seventh-inning comeback carried the Yankees (67-52) to their third win in four games last night. On Wednesday, New York will attempt to clinch a series victory over the Mariners (56-64). Despite massive preseason expectations, Seattle finds itself outside of the playoff picture. Can the M’s get back on track this evening in the Bronx?
The Yankees are favorites (-124) over the Mariners; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Seattle and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Yankees ML (-124): Miller might be the more proficient starter compared to Warren, but that’s the only area where Seattle has an edge tonight. At the plate, New York’s depleted lineup still offers more resistance than these ice-cold Mariners bats. The Bronx Bombers are the safer bet tonight as home favorites.
Mariners vs. Yankees prediction, preview
If Seattle is going to pull off the upset, it’ll likely require a stellar performance from Bryce Miller. Fortunately, the right-hander is more than capable of meeting the moment. It’s been a terrific, albeit injury-shorted, campaign from the 27-year-old. Through 79.0 innings pitched (13 starts), he’s accounted for a 3.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 79 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). A look under the hood provides even more reason to back Miller. He ranks within the 92nd percentile among qualified starters in xERA (2.74), chase rate (36.2%), walk rate (4.9%) and hard-hit rate (30.8%).
With all that being said, there is some cause for concern here. Miller has looked off over the past few weeks; he owns a 5.81 ERA over his previous five outings. That includes bad performances against middling Marlins and Rangers lineups on the road. He’s also someone that can allow the occasional long ball (1.5 HR/9). In comparison, the Yankees have smacked the second-most home runs in baseball (167) this season. New York’s bats have been subpar at best in the absence of Aaron Judge (ribs). Still, there are several talented left-handed batters that could take advantage of a mistake from Miller. Highly touted prospect George Lombard Jr. has given this group a spark during his brief time in the big leagues. The Bronx Bombers are 4-2 since the shortstop made his debut on August 4th.
New York will hand the ball to their fifth starter, Will Warren. Although he’s far from an ace, the righty has been a welcome presence in this rotation. Over 114.0 innings (22 starts), he’s put up a 4.18 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 114 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). For a back-end arm, manager Aaron Boone has to be pleased with those results. Warren has been even better when taking the hill at Yankee Stadium (3.88 ERA). During two career meetings with the Mariners, he’s allowed two earned runs (1.69 ERA).
It’s not as if Warren needs to be at his absolute best on Wednesday. The Mariners are an absolute mess, scoring an MLB-worst 3.86 runs per game. The team’s struggles are headlined by Cal Raleigh, who has suffered a shocking fall-off in 2026. After finishing as AL MVP runner-up in 2025, the catcher is batting .159 with a minuscule 68 wRC+ this season. Still, he’s not the only member of this lineup that’s disappointed. As a unit, Seattle ranks 30th in batting average (.228), 29th in slugging percentage (.374) and 29th in OPS (.681). Since July 1st, only the Angels have scored fewer runs than the M’s.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-124)
Warren isn’t an ace, but he’s certainly good enough to silence baseball’s lowest-scoring offense. As for Miller, he could face a bit of difficulty against a homer-happy, lefty-leaning Yankees lineup. New York, if nothing else, has shown some mental fortitude with several late-game comebacks this month. Even if the Pinstripes trail early, they should find a way to come through at home.
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