The Milwaukee Brewers had the MLB’s best record, but even the clubs at the top aren’t invulnerable. The San Diego Padres are hot as can be and just took the first two games of this series at home. Now, they’re searching for a sweep at Petco Park when first pitch is thrown out at 4:10 p.m. ET today.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for today’s Brewers vs. Padres game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Padres prediction, preview
After back-to-back losses – including an 11-2 drubbing last night – the Brewers are now just 15-9 since the All-Star break. It’s still a very good record over the span and they remain 74-45 overall on the year with a +131 run differential, but they’ve been thoroughly punched in the mouth in this series. The Padres have to be very happy about these results though, improving to 64-57 with and finally evening out the run differential at 0 last night. Not only that, but they’re also 16-9 since the All-Star break, appearing to finally turn things around.
Two arms who found new homes at the trade deadline square off today. Milwaukee sends out RHP Dustin May (6-7), who has a 4.30 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP over his 115.0 IP. He’s struck out 111 hitters for a 23.0% K% with a 6.8% BB%, though his hard-hit rate falls in the sixth percentile. The club’s bullpen sits fourth in ERA at 3.51 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 14.4% K-BB%.
For San Diego, LHP Robbie Ray (10-7) gets the start. He carries a 3.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over the course of 127.2 IP. His 109 strikeouts give him a K% of 20.3%, while his 11.5% BB% is higher than you’d like to see. However, he’s certainly been effective this year. The Padres’ relievers also have a 3.62 ERA that ranks fifth, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 15.2% K-BB%.
Looking at the bats, Milwaukee ranks seventh in OPS this year at .732 and has a high-upside offense. Despite falling 26th in ISO at .144 with 110 homers, the fewest of any club, the Brewers typically have no problem scoring thanks to excellent plate approach and a high wOBA of .323. However, there are some worries here. They slash just .238/.325/.364 with a .689 OPS against left-handed pitching, which may be an issue against Ray.
The Padres lit up the scoreboard last night with 11 runs and now have the best offense in baseball since the All-Star break, slashing .283/.356/.457 with an .813 OPS. This level of production probably isn’t sustainable in the long term, but it’s a welcome sign for a club that looked pitiful at the plate for much of the season’s first half. Overall, they’re 24th in OPS (.702), 23rd in ISO (.151), and 20th in homers (133). They also see the benefit of their splits against right-handers with a .236/.315/.393 line and a .708 OPS – it doesn’t impress, but the context is still important.
Brewers vs. Padres pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -116 Moneyline favorite on the road this afternoon, while the Padres enter as +108 underdogs to win at home. The run total is set at eight.
Milwaukee has only dropped three consecutive games a handful of times this season, largely getting back on the right foot almost immediately when trouble hits. After all, this is one of the MLB’s best teams. However, this may not be the night for them to bounce back. Ray has been very solid at run suppression, though there’s a big question as to whether his numbers see an uptick given his heavily skewed home/road splits when pitching at Oracle Park as a member of the San Francisco Giants for most of the season. He does get to face a group that doesn’t hit lefties very well, so I’d venture to say he should be okay today.
Likewise, this surge from the Padres is beginning to feel real. They’re first in wRC+ since the break while also leading the MLB in wOBA and average, also amassing the second-highest slugging percentage while keeping the K% down at 18.1%, second best of any club. They’ll cool off at some point, but May’s hard-hit rate could bite him here if the San Diego bats keep doing what they’re doing. Given the form on both sides of the matchup, the +108 value on the Friars feels right.
