Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night-half of Wednesday’s slate: Bobby Witt Jr. and Munetaka Murakami.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | +264 | Murakami has an extra-base hit in four straight games, including a long ball on August 7 and August 8. That’s what can happen when you flaunt a 100th percentile hard hit rate (59.6%) and a 99th percentile barrel rate (20.8%). Meanwhile, Rhett Lowder is conceding 1.69 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +272 | Witt Jr. only has a single long ball since the beginning of July. However, he still owns a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.382), a 95th percentile hard hit rate (52.2%) and a team-best .582 expected slugging percentage versus LHPs. He’ll face Eric Lauer on Wednesday, who is surrendering 2.15 opponent home runs per nine in 2026. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Run (+264)
I probably don’t have to sell you too hard on Murakami in this market. The rookie missed all of June due to injury, yet he still comes into Wednesday’s contest against the Reds with 26 home runs to his name. He’s red-hot, too. Murakami has an extra-base hit in four straight games, including a long ball on August 7 and August 8. That’s what can happen when you flaunt a 100th percentile hard hit rate (59.6%) and a 99th percentile barrel rate (20.8%). It’ll be up to Rhett Lowder to slow down the former NPB star, and I don’t really like the RHP’s chances. Not only has Lowder pitched to an uninspiring 5.27 xERA so far in 2026, but he’s also conceded 1.69 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. This could get ugly.
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Home Run (+272)
I’m not going to lie. You’d like slightly longer odds for a man who only has 13 home runs so far this season. Heck, Witt Jr. only has a single long ball since the beginning of July. Still, the shortstop is a phenom, even in a “down” offensive campaign. Witt Jr. owns a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.382) and a 95th percentile hard hit rate (52.2%). Specific to tonight’s matchup with Eric Lauer, it’s also important to know that Witt possesses a .582 expected slugging percentage versus LHPs — easily the highest mark on the Royals roster. Lauer had been surviving since being shipped from Toronto to Los Angeles mid-season, but the veteran’s luck is starting to wear out. Lauer’s given up as many earned runs (15) as he has strikeouts (15) in his last five starts. He’s also just surrendering 2.15 opponent home runs per nine for 2026 as a whole, which is the second-most of any pitcher with at least 90 innings thrown.
