What is going on in the American League?
At the unofficial three-quarter mark of the season, the Texas Rangers are inhabiting the AL’s final Wild Card spot with a 60-60 record. Beneath them? Five clubs within 2.5 games, including both the Guardians and the Tigers. This is going to get wonky.
After taking the first contest of this series on Tuesday night, can Detroit say red-hot and keep gaining ground in the playoff hunt? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Tigers prediction, preview
If you want to get a sense of just how weird the Tigers’ season has been, know that they come into Wednesday’s action with the best run differential in the American League (+89). That’s right. The whole league — not just the AL Central. Really, Detroit has been a club built around two legitimate MVP candidates: Dillon Dingler and Kevin McGonigle. The former’s impressive combination of power and defense behind the plate has translated into a 5.5 fWAR, which is the third-best mark in MLB. Meanwhile, McGonigle is fifth in fWAR (4.8) despite this being the 21-year-old’s rookie campaign. McGonigle isn’t crushing the ball or racking up eye-popping counting stats, but a 98th percentile chase rate (18.9%) has allowed him to maintain a fantastic .391 OBP at the top of the Tigers’ order. He’s a spark plug with the approach of a seasoned vet. What’s not to like?
Specific to Wednesday’s contest, Detroit will turn to Framber Valdez, the team’s “ace” after the departure of Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. It’s been an up-and-down season for the two-time All-Star, as 2026 is the first occasion that Valdez’s ERA (4.17) has been above 4.00 since all the way back 2019. That said, the southpaw is directly on the heels of arguably his best outing as a member of the Tigers, as he tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mariners last Thursday. The Guardians are also a pretty decent matchup for Valdez. Cleveland owns MLB’s lowest ISO against left-handed pitching (.117), while it also ranks 28th in wOBA (.294) within the split.
Foster Griffin will probably be hoping for a little more run support that those numbers suggest. He’ll also be hoping to make a better second impression on Guardians fans than his first attempt. After being picked up at the deadline from the Nationals, Griffin laid an egg in his first start with Cleveland, allowing five earned runs across four innings against the Mets. In fact, the southpaw has now conceded 14 earned runs in his past three starts combined. This, following a run of eight outings where Griffin maintained a sterling 1.25 ERA over 50.1 innings in June and July. If the Guardians have any chance of making the postseason — outside of their easy remaining strength of schedule — Griffin will need to re-discover that version of himself.
Guardians vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-123)
The Tigers are 8-2 in their past 10 games with a 70-49 expected win/loss record for the season as a whole. This is simply a good team that’s gotten a little unlucky. Now they’ll get to face a Guardians squad that has dropped six of its last seven, and has proven that it can not hit left-handed pitching. Cleveland owns MLB’s lowest ISO against southpaws (.117).
Strong Lean: Gleyber Torres 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Torres is hitting .118 against LHPs this season, but open up your mind for a moment. The former All-Star still leads the Tigers with a .369 expected wOBA within the split, and he posted a 150 wRC+ versus lefties just last year. Tonight’s the night things begin to normalize.
