Perhaps more than any other team in baseball this season, the Toronto Blue Jays are proof that nothing is guaranteed. They came within two outs (and approximately two inches) of winning the World Series last fall, and after signing Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto in the offseason, it seemed they had all the tools necessary to get back to the promised land again.
Nearly two-thirds of the way through the season, the Blue Jays have just a 7% chance of making the postseason headed into their 6:45 p.m. ET series opener against the Washington Nationals, a team with a better record than them despite losing 96 games last season.
World Series Game 7 starter Max Scherzer will start for Toronto, and Eddy Yean will open ahead of Andrew Alvarez for Washington.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals Best Bets
- Washington Nationals Moneyline (-125): Despite going just 22-32 at home, the Nationals are a solid bet, given how much better their offense is than the Blue Jays’ and how volatile Scherzer has been this season.
- James Wood 1+ Home Runs (+223): Wood went deep twice last night in Washington’s win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he trails only his teammate CJ Abrams in slugging percentage. Meanwhile, Scherzer has given up at least one homer in all but one of his starts this season.
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals prediction, preview
It wasn’t always this bad for the Blue Jays. They hung around .500 for most of the first three months of the season, climbing to a 56.4% chance of making the postseason on June 21, but since then, they’ve lost 19 of their 28 games to drop out of playoff contention entirely. Last season, Toronto had baseball’s best offense after the All-Star break, but so far this season, it’s had the league’s second-worst, both overall and since the start of the second half. George Springer, an MVP candidate last season, has played just 75 ineffective games, and former MLB home run leader champ and perennial MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone deep just six times all season, completely overshadowing Ernie Clement’s All-Star breakout and Okamoto’s strong rookie campaign. Additionally, the Blue Jays’ rotation has been a below-average unit despite Cease’s Cy Young Award-worthy campaign, though at least their bullpen has been baseball’s 10th-best, thanks mostly to Louis Varland’s heroics. They’re likely to be sellers at the deadline, with veteran starters Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber the most likely to be moved.
The Nationals have hovered around .500 all season, never climbing more than four games above or five games below the mark, but given that an 83-79 record was good enough to make the playoffs in both 2021 and 2025, Washington’s 10.5% chance of making the playoffs could be a little low. The Nationals have had baseball’s best offense this season after having a bottom-10 unit in 2025, as James Wood and CJ Abrams rank first and third, respectively, in OPS (ironically, Juan Soto, who was traded for Wood and Abrams, ranks second). Luis García Jr. has also had the best season of his career at age 26, and Curtis Mead had broken out before being traded to the Boston Red Sox. Washington has still had among the league’s worst rotations, as it ranks seventh-to-last in ERA with only Foster Griffin below a 3 ERA, but Connelly Early (who was one of Boston’s better starters this season) should help with that. The Nationals will also likely look for bullpen help at the trade deadline, as they’ve had just the 27th-ranked relief corps this season, and they’re likely to be without closer Clayton Beeter tonight, given that he picked up the save on both Saturday and Sunday.
Scherzer made five horrible starts early in the season, went on the injured list, returned with another terrible outing, then went back on the injured list again. He’s set to return to the mound tonight on his 42nd birthday, five days after a scoreless rehab start with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. Scherzer hasn’t been quite as bad as his 10.23 ERA suggests, but Statcast gives him just a 6.31 expected ERA, and his average fastball sits at just 93.1 miles per hour, a 28th-percentile mark. Though he hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for any Statcast leaderboards, he’d rank below the median in every single stat against chase rate, including whiff, strikeout, barrel, and ground ball rates that would be in the bottom decile. As is, Washington has pretty good contact skills, and it ranks fourth in barrel rate, with Wood leading the league by far in that stat. Scherzer could be helped by returning to a park in which he has a 2.99 career ERA across 99 starts, but this simply isn’t the same Scherzer that won back-to-back Cy Young Awards as a National last decade.
Yean last appeared as an opener on Saturday and recorded four outs on 16 pitches, so it’s likely that he’ll throw either one or two innings tonight. He should be effective, given that he hasn’t yet given up a run in his three MLB appearances and has a respectable 3.35 ERA in Triple-A this season. A solid inning or two from Yean should help Alvarez, who was stellar over his first 11 outings before giving up 11 earned runs across 12 innings in his last three outings. Advanced numbers paint a mixed picture of the lefty, as although his 3.05 FIP suggests that he’s been solidly above average, his 4.57 xERA and .264 xBA are well-below-average marks. To be fair, Alvarez has done a solid job generating whiffs, chases, and strikeouts, which should help him against Toronto’s contact-oriented lineup, and the Blue Jays’ inability to draw free passes should help with command issues. While he’s prone to the occasional hard hit, ranking in the bottom quartile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, Toronto has been one of baseball’s softest-hitting lineups this season. His splits are mixed; the Blue Jays have been slightly worse on the road than at home, but his two roughest outings both came at home.
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Washington Nationals Moneyline (-125)
It’s hard to know what version of Scherzer or what version of Alvarez will show up, but this Toronto lineup has been very unimpressive overall, and even without Mead on the roster, Washington is clicking much more offensively.
Strong Lean: James Wood 1+ Home Runs (+223)
Wood’s two homers last night were his first since the All-Star break, but banking on a guy with a .311/.441/.757 slash line and nine homers since the start of July seems smart. Scherzer likes to throw four-seamers, and Wood has an .830 xSLG against right-handed four-seamers this season.
More MLB Content
Read more MLB content at DraftKings Network:
- Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Top Player Props bets Monday, July 27, 2026
- Atlanta Braves at New York Mets prediction, pick for MLB on Monday 7/27/26
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top three-leg Moneyline parlay for Monday 7/27/26
- Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins prediction, pick for Monday 7/27/26
Tail these bets and more in the DK Network MLB Dugout Betting Group here!
