There are 12 games of MLB action taking place across tonight’s Monday slate. Starting at 7:10 p.m. ET, the Atlanta Braves will open up a three-game series against the New York Mets. This is the third series between these two NL East opponents this season.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Braves enter as narrow -108 favorites and hold +149 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets hold -112 odds of getting the win, and the run total is set at 8.5.
Braves at Mets prediction, preview
The Atlanta Braves leaped out to a 45-21 start to the season, but have slipped to 62-43. They maintain the top spot in the NL East, but the Phillies sit 5.5 games behind them and are attempting to make a push. Atlanta is back to heating up, going 7-3 since returning from the All-Star break, and winning all three series to this point. Overall, the Braves are 56-49 to the run line and 51-48-6 to the over/under.
Martin Perez will be getting the start for the Braves tonight. The former All-Star will be making his 16th start and 20th appearance overall, entering with a 6-6 record, a 3.38 ERA, a 1.195 WHIP, 10 home runs allowed, and 65 strikeouts tallied across 85.1 innings pitched. Perez is coming off his most encouraging start of the season, throwing four scoreless innings and allowing just one hit against the Padres. He has faced off with this Mets lineup in 125 total at-bats in his career, with New York producing slash lines of 304/.379/.456 with a .835 OPS.
At the plate, the Braves are slashing a collective .249/.316/.417 with a .733 OPS on the season. Michael Harris II leads the team with 113 hits, along with 21 doubles, 19 home runs and 61 RBIs. Matt Olson boasts a team-leading 27 home runs and 63 RBIs. Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon also have 100+ hits, while Drake Baldwin and Austin Riley also play key roles. Collectively, the Braves rank eighth in hits, sixth in runs, fourth in home runs and 24th in strikeouts.
The New York Mets have wildly underwhelmed relative to the expectation based on their payroll, sitting in last place in the NL East with a 43-62 record. They picked up an 8-3 win over the Dodgers yesterday, snapping a three-game losing streak before this. On the season, the Mets have gone 48-58 to the run line, and the game total 47-50-9 to the over/under.
Zac Thornton will be on the mound for the Mets tonight. This will make just the fifth start of the 24-year-old’s career. Thornton enters with a 1-1 record, a 1.93 ERA, a 0.857 WHIP, one home run allowed, and 17 strikeouts tallied across his first 23.1 innings pitched. He is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, and no member of this Braves roster has ever faced Thornton before.
The Mets’ offense is posting collective slash lines of .233/.304/.381 with a .686 OPS. Juan Soto headlines the production with 21 home runs, 52 RBI and a National League-leading .947 OPS, but he joined the injury report yesterday with a calf injury. Bo Bichette has settled in after a rough start, leading the team with 107 hits, 10 home runs and 52 RBI. Francisco Alvarez, Carson Benge and Marcus Semien have each also notched 10+ home runs on the season. As a team, New York ranks 25th in hits, 26th in runs, 14th in home runs and 14th in strikeouts.
Braves at Mets pick, best bet
The Atlanta Braves looked like one of the best teams in baseball for the bulk of the first half of the season. They hit some turmoil leading up to the All-Star break, but look to be finding their stride once again. Atlanta is 7-3 since returning from the break, and they are averaging six runs per game.
The biggest question mark in this game is the pitching matchup. Martin Perez has had some ups and downs this season and has not pitched past the sixth inning all season. Perez has not given up more than four earned runs and is coming off his most encouraging start, but this is a matchup he has struggled with. In contrast, the book is still written on who Zac Thornton is at the MLB level. He has looked extremely sharp in all four starts thus far, but the scouting report will continue to grow as his workload increases from the 23.1 innings he has pitched.
But I am backing the Braves to continue their pathway to getting back on track and looking like one of the best teams in baseball. The Braves are 10-9 in games that Perez has pitched, and I need to see a larger sample size of Thornton’s work to fully buy-in. This will also mark his first time pitching on regular rest at the MLB level, as the rookie has been given eight or more days of rest in each of his previous four starts.
Atlanta’s offense is producing at a high level, while the Mets do not carry the level of bite they should, especially with Juan Soto sidelined. New York has dropped five of their last six home games and are 11-21 to the run line as home favorites. The Braves have won nine of their last 10 games against NL East opponents following a road win and are shaping into their desired form once again. Back the Braves to continue building up their NL East lead and produce the victory against the youthful Mets’ pitcher.
Best bet: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-108)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
