Last season, the NL East sent just the Philadelphia Phillies to the postseason, as both the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins only narrowly missed out on the tournament, with the Mets’ collapse continuing throughout the second half of the season and the Marlins’ late charge not being quite enough.
For a while, it seemed as if the NL East might send three teams to the playoffs this season, as the Phillies securely hold a Wild Card spot and Miami briefly held one, but a 12-game losing streak spanning both sides of the All-Star break has done the Marlins in. They’ll hope to snap that malaise tonight, when they open a three-game home set against Philadelphia at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the hosts, and Miami will turn to Tyler Phillips.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Best Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110): The Marlins might not be quite as bad as they’ve looked over the past few weeks, but they also weren’t as good as they looked during their 26-8 stretch before that. It’s just hard to bank on a team on the longest losing streak in franchise history.
- Zack Wheeler 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-103): Wheeler is aging like fine wine, and he’s made virtually no mistakes this season, especially on the road. His last start in Miami came on September 9, 2024, and he pitched six innings of two-hit, one-run ball.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins prediction, preview
The Phillies had a miserable start to the season, going just 9-19 and firing Rob Thomson, but long-time skipper Don Mattingly has turned the team around, going 48-30 to help Philadelphia climb to within 5.5 games of the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East. In fact, per FanGraphs, the Phillies are now more likely to win the division (19.4%) than to miss the playoffs (16.2%). Philadelphia has been winning despite an underwhelming offense; for the season, it ranks just 23rd in OPS despite Kyle Schwarber’s exploits, as Trea Turner, Justin Crawford, and Alec Bohm have had miserable offensive campaigns. In part, that’s because the Phillies have had an above-average rotation, with one of the best top threes in the league (Cristopher Sánchez, Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo). Their bullpen leaves some room to be desired, especially at the back end, but Jhoan Duran has been spectacular and Orion Kerkering and Jonathan Bowlan have been reliable as well. Philadelphia will certainly be looking for more pitching help at next week’s trade deadline, as it needs both a back-end starter and a left-handed reliever.
The Marlins could be a willing partner. They didn’t look likely to be trade deadline sellers at the All-Star break, but 12 consecutive losses have seen their playoff chances fall from 51.5% to 7.7%. For the season, Miami’s offense has been quite solid, as it ranks 10th in OPS thanks to Otto Lopez (the MLB leader in hits, doubles, and batting average), but after the All-Star break, it’s been baseball’s third-worst. Jakob Marsee has just four total hits across the losing streak. The Marlins have also had both an above-average rotation and bullpen, but while their starters have been fine since the All-Star break, their relievers haven’t. Pete Fairbanks, Lake Bachar, and Calvin Faucher have all blown leads in the last week and a half, and as a whole, Miami’s relievers have registered a pitiful 6.54 ERA across the first nine games of the second half. Thanks to their bullpen’s struggles, the Marlins are now likely to reset at the trade deadline, with 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara potentially back on the block. Alcantara has been among the team’s better pitchers this season, but given his pedigree, he could attract a fairly significant return.
Miami will have its hands full tonight with Wheeler, who’s simply been one of the league’s most consistent stars over the last seven seasons. This campaign has arguably been his best; although he’s pitched only 100 innings because he missed the first month of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery, he’s posted a 2.16 ERA in 16 starts. He’s escaped without damage more times (four) than he’s given up three or more earned runs (three). Advanced stats back up his sterling basic resume; he ranks in the 96th percentile in expected ERA and in the 71st percentile or higher in all but one Statcast category. In particular, Wheeler excels at inducing chases, whiffs, and strikeouts, ranking in the top octile in all of those stats, which could be an asset against a Marlins team with a relatively patient plate approach and good contact skills. He’s comparatively prone to the occasional barrel, thanks to his 71st-percentile ground ball rate, but Miami has hit a lot of grounders and has the fifth-lowest barrel rate in the league. To make matters even worse for the Marlins, Wheeler has been even better on the road this season (1.73 ERA) and Miami has been worse at home.
Phillips began the season as a long reliever, and he was brilliant in that role, pitching to a 1.20 ERA across 15 appearances (30 innings). However, since May 24, 10 of his 11 outings have been starts, and he’s been more mediocre, recording a 4.93 ERA, including a proper blow-up outing against the Phillies (four innings, eight earned runs) on June 16. Advanced numbers don’t paint such a positive picture of Phillips, as he ranks in just the 26th percentile in expected ERA and the 21st in expected batting average. While the sinkerballer has been good at inducing grounders, an asset against a lineup that struggles to get the ball up as is, he ranks in the bottom quartile by both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, two categories in which Philadelphia has been among baseball’s best. Additionally, Phillips has just a 12th-percentile strikeout rate and a 23rd-percentile walk rate, mitigating two of the Phillies’ biggest weaknesses. The location splits should help him, as he’s been significantly better at home and Philadelphia far worse on the road, but I’m certainly not optimistic that he can out-duel Wheeler.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)
The gulf in the starting pitching matchup is massive, especially since Wheeler’s relative weaknesses are mitigated by Miami’s and Phillips’ weaknesses exacerbated by the Phillies’ lineup. The Marlins have lost by multiple runs in each of their last eight games.
Strong Lean: Zack Wheeler 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-103)
This Miami lineup is clearly out of form, and Wheeler has given up one or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine road starts this season. He also pitched six innings of two-hit shutout ball the last time he faced the Marlins on June 15.
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