It’s been a difficult season for the Giants (24-38), who sit at fourth place in the NL West. If San Francisco is going to make any kind of postseason push, now is the time to start stacking wins. That won’t be easy on the road this afternoon against a contending Brewers (37-22) squad. Milwaukee, currently atop the NL Central, is eyeing a World Series berth.
The Brewers are favorites (-194) over the Giants, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between San Francisco and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Giants vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Taking the mound for the visitors in this one will be Adrian Houser. It’s been a difficult campaign for the veteran, enjoying his tenth season in the big leagues. Over 56.1 innings of work, he’s accounted for a 5.59 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 35 strikeouts (5.6 K/9). Surprisingly, he’s been better away from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park (4.79 ERA). Regardless, it’s difficult to have much faith in the righty on Thursday. Houser ranks inside the bottom tenth percentile in xERA (5.68), xBA (.291), whiff rate (18.0%) and strikeout rate (13.6%).
To make matters worse for the Giants, most pitchers tend to struggle in this spot. The Brewers are averaging 5.33 runs per game at home this season, third-most in the majors. Surprisingly, they’ve done so despite hitting the fewest homers in all of baseball (41). Instead, this group has made its mark by working the count and wreaking havoc on the base paths. Milwaukee ranks third in on-base percentage (.334) and second in stolen bases (62). Even at his best, Houser has never been one to generate a ton of whiffs. If there was ever a team you don’t want to give up contact against, it’s this one. Houser’s weapon of choice is the sinker, which he’s thrown on nearly half of his pitches this season (46%). Against that offering, Brewers hitters have recorded a .299 batting average and .395 on-base percentage.
As for the home team, Coleman Crow will be making his fourth career start. In a limited sample size, the rookie has impressed. Through 14.1 innings of work, he’s surrendered five earned runs (3.14 ERA). Most impressive, all three of those appearances have come on the road. Toeing the slab at American Family Field should only help out the young hurler. Per Savant, it’s the sixth-most pitcher-friendly venue in the league over the past three seasons. Even if the youngster gets into some early trouble, manager Pat Murphy will have options. Milwaukee’s bullpen has produced a 3.16 ERA so far, fifth-best in the league. Most of the team’s top relievers come into this one well-rested after Robert Gasser and Chad Patrick combined for nine innings on Wednesday.
It’s not as if the Brewers will need to be at their absolute best on Thursday. The Giants have been a mess at the plate all season, tied for the fewest runs per game in baseball (3.84). They rank inside the bottom six squads in home runs (56), on-base percentage (.300) and stolen bases (15). Injuries to outfielders Heliot Ramos (quad) and Harrison Bader (foot) haven’t helped. Coming off of a one-run performance last night, it’ll be a quick turnaround for this struggling lineup in today’s matinee matchup.
Best Bets: Brewers -1.5 (+104)
San Francisco managed to eke out a 1-0 win last night, thanks to a terrific showing from Logan Webb. However, it’ll be difficult for Houser to replicate that performance this afternoon. Milwaukee’s success against the sinker should give the Giants cause for concern. On the other side, Crow won’t need to be at his best in order to deliver a solid outing. In this rubber match, I’ll back the Brewers to earn a comfortable victory at home.
