Oh, how quickly things can change.
The White Sox were at the top of the AL Central for months, but after dropping Wednesday’s rubber match to the Guardians in Cleveland, Chicago now finds itself fighting for a Wild Card spot.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are continuing to play spoiler. Detroit took two of three from Toronto earlier this week, now it’ll look to stymie a division rival.
Let’s dive into this 7:40 p.m ET matchup on the Southside and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. White Sox prediction, preview
It’s interesting that Erick Fedde will start this game for the White Sox, especially with how the club utilized openers for both Sean Burke and Davis Martin against the Guardians. It’s not just that Fedde is very accustomed to working behind an opener at this point, it’s also that his numbers in his 14 starts are pretty concerning. The veteran RHP owns a 5.62 FIP as a starter in 2026, a dishonor primarily derived from the fact that Fedde has surrendered a whopping 2.00 opponent home runs per nine within the split. Now, Fedde does sport a 2.57 ERA since August 7, but that can mostly be chalked up to an unsustainably low .226 opponent BABIP. In the end, I believe Fedde’s 4.67 xERA and third percentile whiff rate (18.1%) for the season as a whole are far more predictive of what we might see tonight.
Speaking of underwhelming veterans lacking swing-and-miss stuff, let’s break down Framber Valdez. The 32-year-old signed for big money this offseason, and he’s immediately responded with the worst full-campaign of his career. Valdez has registered a 4.01 ERA and a 4.43 xERA across 29 starts and 163.2 innings of work. The most concerning red flags have been a 17.0% strikeout rate — easily the lowest of the left-hander’s professional left — along with a career-low 2.10 opponent GB/FB ratio. Valdez is still one of the best ground ball pitchers in the league, yet he’s not far and away the king of launch angle suppression like he used to be. With all that said, Valdez hasn’t allowed an earned run in either of his last two outings, so it’s possible the White Sox are catching him at the wrong time.
Conversely, Valdez might be drawing Chicago at the ideal time. In September, the White Sox have floundered to a league-low .209 batting average, complimented by MLB’s third-highest strikeout rate (27.3%) and it’s ninth-lowest wRC+ (92). These offensive struggles are a massive reason for the team’s collapse in the division, and they are highlighted — or maybe low-lighted — by Munetaka Murakami. The former NPB start is just 5-for-52 (.096) in the month wit 31 strikeouts. Woof. Colson Montgomery suffering a wrist injury in Wednesday’s loss won’t help matters, either. The infielder is day-to-day.
Tigers vs. White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-103)
The Tigers have won six of their last seven contests, and the lineup suddenly looks deep again with a healthy Riley Greene in the middle of it. Remember, Detroit may be eight games below .500, but it still possesses the AL’s third-best run differential (+76). This is a dangerous group.
Strong Lean: Framber Valdez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
Even with the underwhelming ratios, Valdez has eaten innings this season for the Tigers. He’s gone over this prop in four straight starts and six of his last eight outings overall. I’d expect him to make that five in a row against a White Sox lineup that ranks dead-last in batting average (.209) for the month of September.
