The Kansas City Chiefs’ magic number — besides 15, of course — is down to one.
With a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in western Pennsylvania on Christmas Day or a Buffalo Bills home loss to the New York Jets on Sunday, the Chiefs will secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye, which could allow Patrick Mahomes to fully recover from his high ankle sprain.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is coming off a demoralizing 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and, while it still leads the AFC North, all of its margin for error is gone. With the Ravens favored to win their Christmas Day clash against the Houston Texans, Wednesday’s game is a must-win for the Steelers — and for the Bills.
DraftKings is offering a DFS Showdown contest for the big game. Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $200K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (KC @ PIT)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Russell Wilson ($14,100 CP) – Steelers country, let’s ride!
Wilson didn’t even look to be a guaranteed starter with Pittsburgh this season after a pair of rocky seasons in Denver, but he usurped Justin Fields in Week Seven despite Fields playing solidly up to that point. In his nine starts, he has played well, even if not quite up to his prime Seattle standards, completing nearly 65% of his passes for 2,129 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four picks, helping the Steelers to six wins.
I like him as a captain’s pick here more than Mahomes, who has had a pretty rough season. Both quarterbacks average roughly the same number of FPTS on DraftKings, but Pittsburgh’s aerial defense is better than Kansas City’s. The Chiefs have been decent, but still allow only the 12th-fewest FPTS to opposing quarterbacks. The likely return of Steelers wide receiver George Pickens, who I also considered here for a Captain’s Pick, should allow Wilson to thrive.
Travis Kelce ($12,300 CP) – Just as his quarterback has struggled by his lofty standards, it hasn’t been the greatest season for Kansas City’s star tight end. Whether it’s age, decreased motivation to play with his brother, Jason, having retired, the national attention of dating Taylor Swift, or something else, the 35-year-old Kelce hasn’t quite been the game-breaking playmaker he was in the past few seasons.
Then you look at the full stat sheet and remember that, despite having the worst season of his career, Travis Kelce is still Travis Kelce. 89 catches for 739 yards and two scores is hardly a terrible season. He’s still Mahomes’ preferred target, leading the team with a 24.9% target share overall and 25.3% in the red zone.
Wednesday won’t be the easiest matchup for the Chiefs overall. In general, the Steelers’ aerial defense is pretty good, allowing only a 63.4% completion percentage, the seventh-lowest in the NFL, and 19 touchdowns, tied for the eighth-fewest. Even in the loss to Baltimore, they coaxed Lamar Jackson into a relatively unproductive game by his incredible standards.
However, Pittsburgh’s success is mostly attributable to the team’s secondary playmakers, like three-time All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. As such, the Steelers are better against opposing wide receivers than tight ends; Pittsburgh allows the 14th-fewest FPTS to opposing wideouts, but the 13th-most to opposing tight ends, making Kelce a worthwhile play.
FLEX Plays
George Pickens ($9,600) – In terms of value to his team, Pickens might be the second-most important player in this game, after Mahomes. The Steelers have looked like a completely different team with and without their star receiver, who has been responsible for 39.2% of Pittsburgh’s air yards this season. With Pickens on the field between Weeks 7 and 13, Wilson averaged 271 yards per game. In the last three games, with Pickens on the sideline, that average dropped to just 168 yards per game.
Even after missing three games, Pickens has still hauled in 55 catches for 850 yards and three scores and has garnered at least five targets in all but one game this season. He’s also one of the league’s premier deep threats on one of its more conservative teams, averaging 13.5 intended air yards per target — a top-20 figure in football — despite playing with a quarterback who averages just 8.0 AY/A, the second-lowest figure of his career.
Pickens is by far Wilson’s most reliable target — even with the recent breakout of Calvin Austin III — and the veteran signal-caller leans on him heavily. He has been the intended target of 27.7% of the Steelers’ passes in the games he has played, a figure that leaps to 38.1% within the opponent’s 20-yard line. The latter figure lags only behind Atlanta’s Drake London and the Giants’ Wan’Dale Robinson among the highest in the league.
Hollywood Brown ($6,600) – Last week, Brown finally made his debut for the Chiefs after missing the entire season recovering from a major shoulder injury. He wasn’t incredible, hauling in five catches for 45 yards from eight targets, but he is at minimum the second-most talented receiver on the Kansas City roster if he’s fully healthy. Head coach Andy Reid eased him in — he appeared in just 27% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps on Saturday — but he still made his presence felt.
Brown is a talented deep threat that Mahomes has lacked since Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 4. The two-time MVP has been one of the most conservative passers in the NFL this season, but Brown has career averages of 7.4 yards before catch per reception and an 11.6-yard average depth of target across six seasons split between Baltimore, Arizona, and Kansas City. Mahomes used him on short routes on Saturday, with 2.0 yards before catch per reception and a 7.0-yard average depth of target, but the extra few days should give his shoulder more time to recover.
Like the Chiefs, the Steelers have a relatively average pass defense, allowing the 14th-fewest FPTS to opposing wide receivers. Quarterbacks are relatively inefficient against Pittsburgh, with a 63.4% completion percentage and an 84.0 passer rating — both bottom-ten figures in the league. Still, the Steelers have given up plenty of production through the air; their 3,554 yards allowed are more than all but 13 teams. Also, Pittsburgh’s 13 20-plus-yard receptions allowed are tied for 13th-most in football.
Fades
Najee Harris ($7,400) – I faded Najee Harris in this space prior to Saturday’s game, and he disappointed with nine carries for 42 yards, his second-worst fantasy performance of the season. Seeing as you shouldn’t fix things if they aren’t broken, I’m going to do so again here.
Harris isn’t a terrible running back, but his production has steadily dipped since a rookie season that saw him earn a Pro Bowl nod. So far this season, he’s taken 238 carries for 933 yards and five scores. His 933 yards still rank 14th in the league, but he hasn’t been efficient; his 3.9 yards per carry average is the 11th-lowest in football.
Harris hasn’t reached 100 rushing yards in any game since a win over the hapless New York Giants in Week 8. As his downward spiral has continued, his snap share has decreased; he appeared in just 28% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps on Saturday. Meanwhile, teammate Jaylen Warren ($7,600) has become the Steelers’ primary back in recent weeks, taking a season-high 67% of the team’s snaps on Saturday.
I can’t imagine him returning good value against Kansas City, especially for his unreasonable price tag. The Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (1,371), the fourth-lowest yards per carry average (4.0), tied for the seventh-fewest touchdowns (11), and tied for the third-fewest 20-plus-yard runs (5). Kansas City allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, making sitting Harris a no-brainer.
THE OUTCOME
This Christmas Day showdown is a battle between two teams who like to win ugly.
Pittsburgh has played in a lot of tight, low-scoring affairs, and the Chiefs have scored 30 points just once this season, setting the stage for what will surely be a defensive battle that takes all 60 minutes to determine.
Kansas City is a whopping 11-0 in one-score games, winning on the strength of its defense and a league-leading seven game-winning drives. It’s going to do so again on Wednesday, clinching the top seed in the process.
Final Score: Kansas City 20, Pittsburgh 16
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $200K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (KC @ PIT)
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
