Let’s start a new Christmas tradition in 2024. Snuggling up on the couch with your family to yell at the terrible buffering on Netflix that’s preventing you from watching the Ravens-Texans game. Don’t worry. I’m just kidding. …Probably.
Let’s break down everything you’ll need to know for this huge AFC tilt.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Merry Showdown [$100K to 1st] (BAL @ HOU)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Nico Collins ($16,100 CP) – You’d have to imagine that Collins is a lock for double-digit targets in this contest. Not only is that volume a reflection of the wideout’s own talent, but it’s a product of the dire situation the Texans currently face at the wide receiver position. No Stefon Diggs. No Tank Dell. Collins is essentially the last man standing. Still, if you’re only going to have one WR, Collins is a pretty great choice. Among qualified receivers this season, Collins is averaging the second-most PPR fantasy points per snap (0.41), trailing just Puka Nacua. He also leads Houston’s skill position players in red zone targets by a wide margin (12) — an impressive feat considering how many games he missed earlier this year due to injury. In the five contests that Collins has seen 10-plus targets in 2024, he’s averaging an eye-popping 23.0 FPTS. I think that trend continues against a Ravens’ secondary that’s conceding the second-most FPTS per game to opposing WRs.
Derrick Henry ($16,800 CP) – I know. Lamar Jackson ($11,000) is probably the safer pick here, as the MVP candidate has produced at least 21.0 FPTS in all but one start since Week 3. However, I just have a feeling that Henry’s due for a massive performance. Henry has been an absolute workhorse for the Ravens in 2024. The veteran ranks second in the league in rushing yards (1,636) and rushing touchdowns (13), while also sitting third in PPR fantasy points (283.8) and fourth in PPR points per snap (0.52) among qualified running backs. Despite rushing for over 140 yards twice in Baltimore’s past four games, Henry hasn’t found the end zone since all the way back in Week 11. Feels like that’s due to normalize, right? Especially when you consider that Henry handles a league-high 93.8% of the Ravens’ rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. This is not a man who gets vultured.
FLEX Plays
Dalton Schultz ($5,200) – For as much as Robert Woods ($4,800) will need to increase his production to help the Texans overcome the loss of the aforementioned Tank Dell, it’s pretty clear that Schultz is now Houston’s No. 2 weapon in the passing attack. With Dell limited to 30 snaps in Week 16, Schultz tied his season-high in both targets (8) and receptions (5) against the Chiefs. He also ran a route on 92.3% of the Texans’ passing downs, resulting in a raw route total of 36 — his most since all the way back in Week 3. Simply put, Schultz seems far too inexpensive on this slate for what is sure to be his level of involvement. Particularly in a game where Houston is a heavy-underdog and will likely be playing from behind and relying on its aerial attack.
Isaiah Likely ($4,400) – For a backup tight end, Likely is pretty integral to what the Ravens want to do on offense. Consider that Likely’s logged exactly a 66.1% snap share in each of Baltimore’s last two games. Also consider that he currently sits second on the team in red zone targets (12), trailing Mark Andrews ($5,800) by only a single high-leverage opportunity. That’s truly the key to his viability on a Showdown slate. Likely isn’t going to put up huge counting stats — he’s exceeded 50 receiving yards twice in 2024 — but he has found the end zone five times, including last weekend versus the Steelers. I’ll take my chances that Likely finds pay dirt again on Christmas.
Fades
Rashod Bateman ($7,400) – Insert the Aaron Paul “he can’t keep getting away with it” meme right here. Since the beginning of Week 11 — a span of five games — Bateman has just eight receptions. Yet, half of those have gone for touchdowns. As such, it probably won’t shock you to learn that across the last six weeks, Bateman leads all wide receivers in PPR points earned per touch (6.09). It’s a fun stat, and Bateman certainly has the speed and aDOT combination to be an elite big play threat, but I can not envision a scenario where this keeps happening. Houston’s secondary is quite good, too. Coming into Week 17, the Texans are surrendering a paltry 5.9 yards per opponent pass attempt, which is the second-best mark in the NFL. All I want for Christmas is some Rashod Bateman regression to the mean.
THE OUTCOME
For as large as this spread is, I’m having a difficult time seeing the Texans’ injury-plagued offense keep pace with the Ravens’ explosive attack. Specifically, I think Baltimore takes advantage of Houston’s underwhelming offensive line and adds to a sack total that already sits as the second-best mark in the league (47). The Ravens are 5-3 ATS on the road in 2024. They’ll make that 6-3 on Christmas.
Final Score: Baltimore 31, Houston 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Merry Showdown [$100K to 1st] (BAL @ HOU)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
