Sunday’s slate of NFL games includes a potential division-deciding matchup, with the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Baltimore to face the 9-5 Ravens with the AFC North title hanging in the balance. Since Pittsburgh beat Baltimore, 18-16, in Week 11, the Steelers will be atop the division next week regardless of what happens, by virtue of having a 7-2 conference record to the Ravens’ 5-4. Still, all of their margin for error would be gone, and they face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17.
Baltimore is currently a 6.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the road just got a lot harder for Pittsburgh to pull off the upset. Wide receiver George Pickens, one of the most dangerous deep threats in the league, has been dealing with a hamstring injury and will miss his third straight game on Sunday.
The Steelers’ offense has struggled with Pickens absent the last two games, as quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for only 286 yards combined and completed just over 60% of his passes. Pittsburgh was able to beat the Cleveland Browns, 27-14, in the first week of Pickens’ absence thanks to a pair of Jameis Winston interceptions and a pair of Chris Boswell missed field goals. But the Steelers looked anemic in a 27-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, totaling just 168 yards of offense.
The sole bright spot in Pittsburgh’s loss to the Eagles was the emergence of Austin, who played a career-high 81% of the team’s offensive snaps and recorded five catches for 65 yards, accounting for more than half of Wilson’s total. He finished second on the team in targets behind tight end Pat Freiermuth, who caught three passes for 22 yards and a score.
Austin should continue his hot form against a Ravens defense that has allowed opposing passers to throw for 3,878 yards this season, the second-most of any team in the league. Baltimore also allows 11.5 yards per catch, the eighth-best efficiency in football, and 24 touchdowns, more than all but six teams. Furthermore, receivers have gotten first downs on 55.3% of catches, the fifth-most efficient rate in the league. The Ravens tend to be targeted a lot because they often race out to big leads and force opposing quarterbacks to throw to keep up.
Perhaps the Steelers’ solid defense will limit Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and keep him from making the game a shootout, as it did in Week 11, but the league’s third-highest scoring offense won’t be held down for long.
In a shootout, Austin becomes even more valuable. With a 4.32-second 40-yard dash, Austin is a big play threat even though he is undersized at five-foot-nine, and Baltimore has been susceptible to explosive plays, allowing 52, more than any team except the cellar-dwelling Jacksonville Jaguars. I like Austin to record at least one explosive play on Sunday, which will significantly boost his fantasy ceiling.
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