We’ve got a potential division decider on our hands: On Saturday afternoon — yes, you read that right — the 9-5 Baltimore Ravens will welcome the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers for an all-important clash. If the Steelers win, the AFC North is effectively theirs, and if the Ravens win, Pittsburgh will still be in front, but simply on the virtue of the conference record tiebreaker.
DraftKings is offering a DFS Showdown contest for the big game. Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $500K Battle for the North [$100K to 1st] (PIT @ BAL)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Lamar Jackson ($18,300 CP) – Sometimes, the simplest answer is the best answer.
The two-time MVP seems likely to come up second in a two-horse race for the league’s top individual honor, but it’s been an incredible season for Jackson regardless. He has completed 68.1% of his passes this season for 3,580 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just three picks, leading the league in both touchdown and interception rates. His numbers are up pretty much across the board from his 2023 MVP campaign. He’s been no slouch in the rushing game either, keeping it himself 117 times and racking up 743 yards — which is tops among all quarterbacks by a wide margin — and three additional scores.
The Steelers’ defense has been good against opposing quarterbacks, conceding the fourth-fewest fantasy points on DraftKings, and Jackson had easily his worst game of the season in the Week 11 loss in Pittsburgh. Still, Jackson is inevitable and it would be foolhardy not to consider arguably the league’s best player.
Pat Freiermuth ($8,700 CP) – If you want a budget option for your captain to spend in other places, look no further than the Steelers’ tight end.
Freiermuth has been one of Pittsburgh’s most reliable targets throughout his four-year career, but this season has arguably been his best. So far, he’s hauled in 47 of his 56 targets for 492 yards and six touchdowns, and he’s putting up career highs in catch percentage, success rate, and yards per target. He has garnered at least three targets in all but one game this season and has found the end zone in each of the last three weeks. Freiermuth is Pro Football Focus’ 22nd-ranked tight end.
He brings tremendous value against a Ravens team that has allowed teams to rack up yards in bunches. Baltimore has allowed opposing quarterbacks to put up 3,878 yards so far this season, more than anyone other than the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens also haven’t done a great job keeping opposing players out of the end zone, conceding 24 touchdown passes, the seventh-most in football.
Part of it has to do with the fact that the team’s offense is so good that it forces opposing quarterbacks to throw to stay in the game, but its efficiency (95.2 opposing passer rating and 7.4 yards per attempt) is also worse than league average. Overall, Baltimore allows the 11th-most FPTS to opposing tight ends, making Freiermuth a smart value play as captain.
FLEX Plays
Calvin Austin III ($4,800) – If Saturday’s game turns out to be a shootout, nobody will benefit more than Austin, who has stepped up admirably for the injured George Pickens. Last week, in a deflating loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Austin was a lone bright spot, hauling in five passes for 65 yards and producing more than half of the Steelers’ passing offense.
I wrote earlier in the week that Austin, with blazing speed to make up for his undersized five-foot-nine frame, is a major threat against a secondary that has been poor at limiting explosive plays. The Ravens have allowed more 20-plus-yard receptions than any team but the Jaguars, and only four teams give up first downs on a greater percentage of catches. Overall, Baltimore allows the second-most FPTS to opposing wide receivers.
Austin’s cheap salary also provides DFS players with an opportunity to spend more on their Captain Pick or in other positions, which makes him a doubly appealing for Saturday’s contest.
Derrick Henry ($12,000) – Since Saturday’s clash features two defenses without any glaring weaknesses — except for Baltimore’s struggles against the pass, as I’ve already detailed — I don’t feel strongly about any of the other FLEX options on the game’s slate.
If you’ve gone with Jackson as your Captain Pick, Henry’s $12,000 price tag will leave you with limited options to fill out the rest of your lineup. But, especially if you’ve gone with a more budget option atop your lineup, why not pair him with one of the league’s most dominant forces?
The 2020 Offensive Player of the Year is in fringe contention to win the award once again, with the fourth-shortest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Henry has shouldered much of the load for Baltimore this year, notching 254 carries for 13 touchdowns and adding 13 catches, 125 yards, and two additional scores through the air. He had his second-worst rushing performance of the season in the teams’ first matchup, but he still turned his 13 carries into 65 yards and a score — maybe not production worthy of his price tag, but still solid nonetheless.
Henry hasn’t found the end zone in his last three games, but I wouldn’t bet against him doing so on Saturday. Sure, the Steelers have allowed the 15th-fewest touchdowns and ninth-fewest FPTS to opposing backs this year, but Henry is nicknamed The King for a reason.
Fades
Najee Harris ($7,600) – In a battle between two elite rushing defenses, I would still play Henry because, well, he’s Derrick Henry. Harris, on the other hand, is not.
Harris hasn’t had a horrible season, but 229 carries for 891 yards and five scores isn’t living up to his lofty standards. His success rate of 42.8% is by far his career low, and he averages fewer yards per carry (3.9) than all but 11 backs. Furthermore, his overall production is boosted by a midseason set of three consecutive 100-yard games against three of the worst teams in football. Since then, his rushing totals: 53, 63, 41, 75, 53, 14. He’s averaged 3.5 yards per carry or fewer across that dry spell, and to make matters worse, his snap share has decreased.
It’s hard to see him turning things around against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the fewest total rushing yards (1,130), the fewest yards per carry (3.5), the 10th-fewest touchdowns (12), the fewest explosive plays (3), the fewest first downs (62), and the lowest rushing first down percentage (19.2%). Some running backs have been able to beat them through the air, but they still allow the seventh-fewest FPTS to opposing running backs.
THE OUTCOME
The Ravens are favored by seven points at DraftKings Sportsbook, but I really don’t think it’ll be that close. Pittsburgh had to rely on a pair of Jameis Winston interceptions and a pair of Dustin Hopkins missed field goals to get an ugly 27-14 win over the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago, and looked dreadful in its 27-13 loss to the Eagles last week. The Steelers look truly lifeless without Pickens on the field.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense has put up points in bunches, and Jackson is, at minimum, a top-four quarterback in football. The Ravens will make a statement in this game with a convincing victory, and I back them to go on and win the division.
Final Score: Baltimore 34, Pittsburgh 10
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $500K Battle for the North [$100K to 1st] (PIT @ BAL)
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
