Fridays are for Five lists of Five, baby. Let’s get you set for Week 7 with some smash starts.
Because, honestly—all I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some.
I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The give-me-as-much-info-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible audience. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, 250 words per player.
Keeping it rolling this week with my five best must-starts for NFL Week 7.
Also available from my Week 7 Friday Five Lists of Five:
- Top five fantasy football players to stash for NFL Week 7
- Top five fantasy football buy-low players for NFL Week 7
- Top five wide receivers due for fantasy football breakouts in NFL Week 7
- Top five fantasy football streamers for NFL Week 7
Set these dudes and forget them.
Smash start ’em
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (at Minnesota Vikings)
On paper, it’s not the best matchup. It’s also not been the best return on investment for Gibbs owners on paper, either. David Montgomery is getting most of the goal-line work,
I feel like it’s important to note that in the games where Gibbs logged zero receptions, he was also targeted zero times. Now, in some cases, that might be a rough sign. It could signal him being phased out of the passing game, read one way. But—yeah, right. He logged his most carries (16 and 14) in those games, respectively.
He’s firmly involved in the gameplan. He has yet to have a full-on game that reminds him why you grabbed him at the Rounds one-to-two turn in 2024 drafts.
Ben Johnson and Goff are going to get this guy in space this week. He’s due.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Risky. Not exactly my best look. But! We roll.
This is potentially just throwing good money after bad, here. But Aiyuk is too good—and, for the record, has already had his 2024 breakout game—to dissolve into this 49ers pass-catching background.
I broke down Aiyuk’s 2024 season in terms of all his advanced metrics in this column earlier this week. Check it out if you want the deep statistical dive. This was the conclusion I came to, and why I’m rolling him out against the Chiefs:
[Aiyuk’s dip in production] might have a bit more to do with the 49ers offensive play-calling than it does anything else. There’s lots of talk about Brock Purdy regressing more toward a league-average quarterback. Which, for the record, feels a lot more likely to me than Brandon Aiyuk regressing toward a league-average wide receiver.
I don’t see anything in Aiyuk’s advanced stats that suggests he should be as mercurial and inconsistent as he’s been. This very well could be the case that, as Brock Purdy returns to form a bit (as he did on Thursday against the Seahawks), Aiyuk will be the beneficiary. He didn’t need to benefit on Thursday, seeing as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle did a ton of work on their own to score touchdowns.
I’m just not ready to give up on Aiyuk yet. I feel like it’s just going to work out that his Week 7 game against the Chiefs is going to be a lot more inspired, and a lot closer statistically to his Week 5 game against the Cardinals.
Straight up: Aiyuk is going head-to-head with Trent McDuffie this week. It’s going to get chippy. I’m starting Brandon Aiyuk in 100% leagues where I own him. This is the sort of game you expect an alpha receiver to take over.
Might be the final shot Aiyuk gets this year.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New England Patriots [London])
The Jags have been in London for two weeks. The Patriots stink. Engram got ten targets last week and converted 100% of them for receptions. He crested 100 yards. This is not hard. Trevor Lawrence uses him as his binky.
Not much analysis, here. As close to a smash start at tight end you’ll find this week.
Tyler Allegier, RB, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Allegier has been quietly eating in this Falcons offense. His last two weeks, he’s logged his most offensive snaps of the year (28). Across that time, he’s rushed 24 times for 117 yards and one touchdown, and he’s snagged four receptions on four targets for 16 yards.
This is remarkably efficient for a backup running back, and I don’t see it stopping anytime soon. Especially not against a Seatttle defense so weak to the run.
Bijan is still the guy in this backfield, but Allegier is a bruiser, and could see goal-line carries this week. Kirk Cousins and the passing game have opened up a ton of room for this backfield, and the playoff-hopeful Falcons aren’t going to run Bijan into the ground in Week 7.
Let’s split the difference between the last two weeks: look for Allegier to get ten carries and two targets this week and make the most of them from your flex spot.
Tyler Goodson, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Again, this is a smash start at FLEX, because we’re altogether unconvinced Trey Sermon (knee) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle) will get it done on Sunday. Goodson, however, showed a remarkable ability to do so in Week 6 against the Titans.
I wrote about stashing Goodson, and broke down some of his advanced stats. More statistical breakdown here, but excerpted below:
Ankle injuries linger, and have before specifically with Jonathan Taylor. Trey Sermon flat-out stinks. The cynical parts of me that I try to curb wonder if he even has a knee injury. Maybe the Colts have just seen enough.
Goodson has been both statistically impressive and statistically efficient when it comes to his touches, and it seems there’s volume to be had in the Indianapolis backfield this week. And I don’t think the recent signing of Salvon Ahmed is anything to worry about. When has he ever?
I don’t think 15+ touches for Goodson this week is whatsoever out of the realm of possibility. It could even be conservative. He’s well worth a stash, and a deep-league start if you need one in a pinch. He might go off.
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