I’m on record advocating for folks to be excited about drafting Brandon Aiyuk in the third-or-fourth round (thinking, then, it was a value) during the days following his contract extension. It seemed like a value, didn’t it? Here was a healthy San Francisco 49ers team, an offense full of returning vets and an electric rookie receiver out of Florida; surely they’d have a chip on their shoulder and just rapid-fire targets to Aiyuk.
He is, after all, even despite what we’re all suffering through this year, a sure-handed receiver who runs routes like he’s polishing lines of poetry. We won’t get into stats in this intro beyond this: Aiyuk is currently PPR fantasy’s WR44 through the first six weeks of the 2024 NFL season. That stinks.
Frankly, I’m as tired of receiving texts from friends demanding I admit publicly that Brandon Aiyuk is, at best, a “mid” (their word, not mine) fantasy asset, always has been, etc., as I am tired of responding with pleas for patience and whatever new ways I can muster to articulate it’s still early yet!
Which it’s not. Not anymore. Six weeks is enough of a fantasy sample size. If you’ve had him in your starting lineup since opening day, he’s posted fewer than six PPR points twice. From, likely, your WR2 slot. I can tell you for certain: his 5.7 points this week was the difference between a win and a loss for my fantasy team. I’m sure I’m not the only one who can pinpoint an L on Brandon Aiyuk at any point this season other than Week 5.
So, okay, I finally admit: Something is going on with Brandon Aiyuk in 2024. Let’s take a look at some NFL Next Gen Stats and see if there’s any defined conclusion in the tea leaves.
Analysis
First, let’s set a baseline for some of Brandon Aiyuk’s 2023 stats with regards to his superficial opportunity metrics:
- Yards/route: 2.65
- Yards/target: 12.8
- Yards/catch: 17.9
- Catch percentage: 71.4%
These simply help us understand the not only Aiyuk’s 2023 efficiency per touch, but also his opportunity within the system (particularly yards per route, in that regard), and how much he capitalized on opportunity.
Now, same stats for 2024. Pinch your nose:
- Y/R: 1.87
- Y/Tgt: 8.6
- Y/C: 15.3
- Catch%: 56.1%
The basic analysis would be to simply look at those numbers and conclude that, because they’re closer to Aiyuk’s career averages than his third-year wide receiver breakout season, which so often is a more representative holistic statline for superstar pass-catchers than the production across their first two seasons.
I really want to key in on the declining yards per route figure. That one flummoxes me the most, as it absolutely suggests a firm change in Aiyuk’s route tree as it relates to his role in the offense. But before I do so, let’s just note: Aiyuk’s 2024 Y/C of 15.3 is not that big of a dip from his 2023 figure of 17.9. This gives me hope. It should for Aiyuk owners everywhere.
Right—onto the routes. Check out the below visual from NGS about Aiyuk’s diminished yards per in-breaking route in 2024 vs. 2023:
When Jauan Jennings had his breakout game in Week 3, I’d been saying that it wasn’t simply going to be either Jennings or Aiyuk. But, apparently, it might be a little closer to that than I thought. Jennings, through four weeks of paltry Aiyuk production, was the in-route king on the 49ers. Hard not to look back there and wish you’d simply started Jennings over Aiyuk, now knowing that this binary existed.
Which then makes this insight from Week 6’s pregame even more interesting. Concerning Aiyuk’s route tree as it related to his Week 5 production:
There are those pesky in-routes again. We’re living and dying by them as Aiyuk fantasy managers, it would seem. Week 5 saw Aiyuk log a career-high in in-route targets, and he had his best day of the season. No coincidence.
Here’s what his route tree looks like from his mega-productive Week 5 against the Cardinals:
In-route city!
Here’s his route chart from his 5.7 PPR-point Week 6 game against the Seahawks:
If you compare the route trees, they look somewhat similar. You can track a lot of Aiyuk’s routes and see them somewhat bending—if not altogether cutting—inward toward the hashes.
Strangely enough, however, NGS’s route chart says that Aiyuk ran zero in routes in Week 6.
Week 5:
Week 6:
Totally different inventory of routes between Weeks 5 and 6. Why? First of all, Purdy only threw the ball 28 times in Week 6, as opposed to 35 in Week 5. A difference, certainly. But not a massive one. And it’s not like Aiyuk was phased out of the gameplan; he was tied for second on the team in targets with 5.
The 49ers were also playing from behind in their Week 5 home loss to the Cardinals, and a team playing catch-up has a different play-calling approach (look at all those hitches!) than a team in command of the lead, as the Niners were in their Week 6 game with the Seahawks.
I’m inclined to say the difference in the route charts vs. the seemingly visual similarities in the route trees might be, at some points, marginal. Plenty of Aiyuk’s routes still followed an inward trajectory of some sort in Week 6. Interestingly enough, though, 47 of his yards in Week 5 came after the catch on an out route. Of course!
So—back to the decline in yards per route. I took a look at the 49ers other games and Aiyuk’s route chart within them. They still have him running, especially in the Patriots game, plenty of in-breaking routes. They know that’s his bread and butter. It simply seems there’s an uptick in hitch routes in games earlier in the season.
Doesn’t that just positively smack of easing a guy back in after a disgraceful offseason hold-in?
The last stat I wanted to check, just to be sure I’m not overlooking Aiyuk losing a step, is his separation scores through six weeks:
- 2023: 2.9
- 2024: 2.4
Again, not a big enough difference for me to think Aiyuk can’t regress positively toward 2023.
Bottom Line
This might have a bit more to do with the 49ers offensive play-calling than it does anything else. There’s lots of talk about Brock Purdy regressing more toward a league-average quarterback. Which, for the record, feels a lot more likely to me than Brandon Aiyuk regressing toward a league-average wide receiver.
I don’t see anything in Aiyuk’s advanced stats that suggests he should be as mercurial and inconsistent as he’s been. This very well could be the case that, as Brock Purdy returns to form a bit (as he did on Thursday against the Seahawks), Aiyuk will be the beneficiary. He didn’t need to benefit on Thursday, seeing as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle did a ton of work on their own to score touchdowns.
I’m just not ready to give up on Aiyuk yet. I feel like it’s just going to work out that his Week 7 game against the Chiefs is going to be a lot more inspired, and a lot closer statistically to his Week 5 game against the Cardinals.
Draw your own conclusions from the stats above. But I’d be buying low.
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