We saw a little bit of Tyler Goodson last year, if you recall. He impressed us then, too, but it was a bit late to really stash him. The Colts promoted Goodson to the active roster on December 19, 2023, following a solid performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where he rushed 11 times for 69 yards. This was in place of an injured Jonathan Taylor.
History repeats itself a bit, as Jonathan Taylor is battling another ankle injury, and Trey Sermon popped up on the injury report with a knee ailment today. Both of their statuses for Sunday are up in the air. Taylor hasn’t even practiced since Week 4.
Enter, once more, Tyler Goodson. He impressed again last week, with eight carries for 51 yards and four receptions for 14 yards. He was a popular waiver add this week on industry lists, but he’s still only 2.7% rostered in fantasy leagues.
Let’s pump those numbers up.
Analysis
Let’s begin with the disappointments.
The disappointments
All of us who had the 1.01 in 2022, when Jonathan Taylor was, for whatever god forsaken reason, the unanimous number-one-overall pick in fantasy drafts—we remember just how well Jonathan Taylor handles ankle injuries. Not well. Which is why this quote from JT himself re. his latest ailment rings utterly hollow:
“I’m definitely feeling better this week,” Taylor told the NFL Network. “Ankles are nothing new to me. I’ve been dealing with them for quite a bit. I’m doing everything in my power to be back out there again this week. You know, the high ankles are always tricky, especially when you’re playing a high-contact sport like this. But I’m sure I’m up for the challenge. Me and the training staff in Indianapolis, we’re going to do everything that we can to be back out there this week and in the coming weeks going forward.”
We’ve yet to see in what capacity Taylor practices throughout the week leading up to the game against the Dolphins. But I’m not necessarily interested in rolling anyone out there who’s describing his current malaise as “tricky,” Halloween season be damned.
And as for Trey Sermon? I feel of Sermon like Samwise Gamgee felt about the One Ring at the foothills of Mount Doom: Let us be rid of him.
In all statistical seriousness, he hasn’t impressed at all. And, in terms of run-and-pass-blocking metrics, the Colts offensive line currently ranks as a top-five unit. 18 carries for 29 yards behind that sort of personnel, as Sermon put up on Sunday against the Titans, is just unacceptable. I would bet too much money that Sermon doesn’t practice much this week and is inactive on Sunday.
A new hope!
So, via injury or just disappointment, it looks like Goodson will be either operating in the starting position, or the 1B position with a hobbled Jonathan Taylor, and a now-healthy Anthony Richardson at the helm. That’s serious value, especially given the added wrinkles Richardson brings to the ground game.
Goodson previously played for the Packers, but wasn’t used much there. However, his rookie workout metrics, according to PlayerProfiler, had his 40-yard dash time in the 94th percentile, and his overall agility score in the 98th percentile.
This was after, of course, strong college career at the University of Iowa, where he totaled 2,551 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns across 34 games. And, just as we’ve seen on the Colts, his receiving chops weren’t awful either during that time; he tallied 565 receiving yards. He was First Team All-Big Ten once in 2020, and Third-Team All-Big Ten the year before the Green Bay Packers drafted him.
He remains under the radar in the NFL simply because he hasn’t had much volume. So far, Goodson’s only averaging 2.3 weighted opportunities per game. He’s earned more touches than that, especially after last Sunday. Goodson’s EPA per carry is highest of any running back on the team so far, with 0.09 (Taylor mirrors him with a a -0.09 EPA/C).
Not to mention, Goodson isn’t exactly easy to bring down. On 13 carries, he’s forced two missed tackles, good for a 15.4% MTF rate, small sample size albeit.
Bottom line
Ankle injuries linger, and have before specifically with Jonathan Taylor. Trey Sermon flat-out stinks. The cynical parts of me that I try to curb wonder if he even has a knee injury. Maybe the Colts have just seen enough.
Goodson has been both statistically impressive and statistically efficient when it comes to his touches, and it seems there’s volume to be had in the Indianapolis backfield this week. And I don’t think the recent signing of Salvon Ahmed is anything to worry about. When has he ever?
I don’t think 15+ touches for Goodson this week is whatsoever out of the realm of possibility. It could even be conservative. He’s well worth a stash, and a deep-league start if you need one in a pinch. He might go off.
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