Fridays are for Five Lists of Five! And, would you lookie there—it’s Week 5. Alliteration goes feral right now.
I’ll be doing this for every week of the season. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, 250 words per player (notice how that number has already ballooned since the first list?).
Kicking it off this week with five wide receivers due for breakout games this week.
Follow along at my handle @dansby_edits for stat threads with minimal emojis all week long. The minimal emojis thing is how I differentiate myself in the market, you see.
Still some emojis, though. I’m human.
Also available from this week’s Friday’s Five Lists of Five:
And, no—I will not use this space to write about Dontayvion Wicks, as he’s on every other wide receiver breakout article. Plus, I already wrote a super-elegant love poem to him here.
Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
A popular name on many lists this week, and for good reason. Legette is Legitte. Get it?
I wrote about Legette’s stats as compared to Jonathan Mingo’s with regards to making a lineup decision between them both this weekend:
Xavier Legette’s fantasy season seems to just be beginning. He had a clutch catch in Dalton’s first game against the Raiders, and ended last week’s contest with a line of six receptions on ten targets for 62 yards. He added two carries for ten yards on the ground.
Fans of Legette’s should be thrilled he’s got Andy Dalton as his quarterback for his rookie year. There’s a stability in that which Legette never would have had this season with Bryce Young at his quarterback.
Mingo’s athleticism will put him in positions to attack weak spots in opposing secondaries, but Legette, as a rookie, is going to establish himself in the way Mingo wishes he could have in 2023. Mingo is currently the Panthers’ second-worst-rated receiver, according to NFL Next Gen stats, who give him a 70.6 overall.
Legette, on the other hand, is the Panthers’ highest-graded receiver, with a score of 98.5. And, in terms of their team value, Legette’s EPA/tgt is 0.25; Mingo’s is -0.26.
There’s a clear alpha, here.
Last week might have constituted Legette’s official breakout. But I like him for a big week against a Chicago secondary that might be in store for a letdown spot.
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
Pure vacuum play here. Someone’s gotta catch passes on the outside. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mack Hollins ended up making plenty of headlines this weekend. He seems to do that no matter for which team he’s playing.
But this represents Coleman’s best chance, situationally and circumstantially, to differentiate himself and gain some trust with Josh Allen. Look for a few big plays, and a concerted effort to drive the ball into Coleman’s hands to move the chains when the Bills are in third-and-long.
Everyone thought Kincaid was going to absorb all of Josh Allen’s targets in Week 1. Not so. Defenses are more afraid of Kincaid, still, than they are of Coleman. I like Coleman for a touchdown this week.
I think there’s a chance Whittington could be this year’s Puka Nacua. Or this year’s 2021 Cooper Kupp. Look at how the Rams utilized him last week against the Bears.
Rams often left Jordan Whittington as the isolated WR to his side
and let him work short to intermediate on crossers and inside breaking routes
The Rams know Stafford is most comfortable when he’s kingmade a receiver in the group to be his safety valve. He’s currently searching for one with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua still out with injuries. The film looked good for Whittington, and his final line in Week 4 wasn’t bad either: six receptions on eight targets for 62 yards. By far his most prolific effort yet.
The Rams are on bye in Week 6, so this is a true stash play. But Nacua is still due to miss a few weeks after that, so Whittington’s usage could still be on the uptick in two weeks’ time.
I’m happy to see Whittington split out on film like that. I like him for a 15+ point game this week against the Packers. Even though, for the record, I think the Packers are going to destroy LA.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Repeat from last week. Because, frankly—last chance, Zay. Cincinnati’s defense is bad. This game is shaping up to be more of a shootout than a grind. If Zay doesn’t eat this week, we all really need to be worried.
Zay isn’t just due for a breakout game this week. He’s in desperate need of one. At least the matchup is plus-plus. But, to be honest, some of Rashod Bateman’s advanced receiving metrics are a bit more impressive than Zay’s.
Flowers’s fantasy managers should start him one last week before benching him until further notice.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper remains the trendy pick to have a blowup game. But I’m calling my shot: it’s Jeudy’s turn.
I wrote about Jeudy’s receiving metrics as compared to Cooper’s here. A brief excerpt:
I’m on record saying Cooper’s opportunity metrics are bonkers. It’s because they are. Maybe what’s more impressive is how much more highly-graded, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jeudy has been with his opportunities than Cooper.
A non-exhaustive rundown:
EPA/target: Cooper: -0.19, Jeudy: 0.14
Yards per route: Cooper: 0.9, Jeudy: 1.3
Yards per target: Cooper: 4.0, Jeudy: 6.6
Receiving yards: Cooper: 148, Jeudy: 197
End Zone targets: Cooper: 2, Jeudy: 2
NGS Grade: Cooper: 61.5, Jeudy: 90.6
Receptions: Cooper: 16, Jeudy: 18
Emphasize the last bullet, here, because it’s important to know that Jeudy’s overall receiver grade is actually based on a larger reception sample than Cooper’s.
You’ll also notice, in the below visual provided by Pro Football Focus, that Jeudy, thus far, has a better separation grade at the catch point than Cooper.
Through 4 weeks, a look at raw PFF WR separation grade (on all routes run) as well as WR grade at the catchpoint & after catch pic.twitter.com/n67hbHdmoK
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the s and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
