After his postgame comments last week about his periodic exhaustion in Week 4, Jerry Jeudy’s ($5,200) drawn headlines, once again, for marble-mouthing to the media. It’s become a bit of a bugaboo of his; I’m not sure Jeudy’s ever been particularly deft with the media—thinking back, here, to the Steve Smith feud two years ago.
He’s drawing headlines for the wrong reasons, though. Jeudy’s quietly been the Cleveland Browns’ best receiver (18 receptions for 197 yards), even with Amari Cooper ($6,200) lapping him in opportunity metrics. Jeudy, through four weeks, is the WR32 in PPR leagues. Yet he’s only rostered in 61.7% of them, and is starting this week on only 14.4% of those teams. As far as WR3s go, he’s been about as steady as she goes.
I’m thinking we need to have a discussion about why Jerry Jeudy is an above-average flex play, and savvy DFS choice, for your Week 5 lineups.
Analysis
Oddly enough, for a player whose gotten a reputation for being a somewhat volatile fantasy asset, Jeudy’s aggregate opportunity metrics represent remarkably consistent value. Having said that, there’s nothing absolutely volcanic to suggest he’s due for a 25+ PPR-point game. Not that I can see, at least.
What I do see, however, is a volumetric stat similar to Jeudy’s hangar-mate, Amari Cooper (about whom I wrote last week as another buy-low target!): Cooper is first in the league in routes run (158) while Jeudy’s 150 rank fourth-overall.
So, okay—this is all to say the Browns are just passing a lot. Jerome Ford ($5,800) and Deshaun Watson ($5,300) don’t represent enough of a ground threat for Stefanski to try to establish any sort of balanced dynamic.
I’m on record saying Cooper’s opportunity metrics are bonkers. It’s because they are. Maybe what’s more impressive is how much more highly-graded, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jeudy has been with his opportunities than Cooper.
A non-exhaustive rundown:
- EPA/target: Cooper: -0.19, Jeudy: 0.14
- Yards per route: Cooper: 0.9, Jeudy: 1.3
- Yards per target: Cooper: 4.0, Jeudy: 6.6
- Receiving yards: Cooper: 148, Jeudy: 197
- End Zone targets: Cooper: 2, Jeudy: 2
- NGS Grade: Cooper: 61.5, Jeudy: 90.6
- Receptions: Cooper: 16, Jeudy: 18
Emphasize the last bullet, here, because it’s important to know that Jeudy’s overall receiver grade is actually based on a larger reception sample than Cooper’s.
You’ll also notice, in the below visual provided by Pro Football Focus, that Jeudy, thus far, has a better separation grade at the catch point than Cooper.
Note that, between them both, only Jeudy is in the plus-plus quadrant of this graph. He’s among the best in the league, here.
Bottom Line
Ignore the noise about Jeudy’s comments to reporters about his endurance. It’s only that: noise.
The matchup against the Commanders isn’t whatsoever a bad one. You figure the Browns are going to need to throw a lot to keep up. I think David Njoku’s ($5,000) return is more beneficial to the Cleveland wideouts than it is a death knell with regards to their potential production.
All Jeudy’s opportunity metrics suggest that he’s a much more stable above-average start than Amari Cooper is. Cooper might have the biggest games, but expect Jeudy to be targeted early and often on Sunday. He’s going to start having more WR2 finishes.
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