He’s already one of the hottest waiver must-adds this week, with over a +30% roster percentage. That only brings Dontayvion Wicks’s to a total ownership of 40%. All to say, you might still be able to readily grab him. Do so right now if you can. Pop out of this tab, swap him your least-favorite bench asset, then return here and I’ll tell you why you’ve made a good choice. He’s a must-add/must-start for your fantasy lineups this week.
Otherwise, consider him a fantastic buy-low target for someone who might, say, need a weekly spot start from a replacement-level running back.
I’m so high on Wicks mostly because of his stats, but the situation doesn’t hurt, either. The Packers’ young, spectacular receiving core is getting more unhealthy by the day. Christian Watson will miss time with an ankle sprain, though he’s expected to avoid an IR designation. Just minutes ago, beat writers noticed that Romeo Doubs isn’t present for today’s practice. We’ll wait for the official status, but seeing as he practiced yesterday, that might be foreboding.
Now that we’ve got a sample size of four weeks, I feel comfortable saying it: I think Wicks is, potentially, one of the most exciting prospects this young 2024 season.
Analysis
He started to make headlines last week when Pro Football Focus released their wide receiver report. Therein, Dontayvion Wicks ranked supreme among all NFL wideouts with at least 25 opportunities when it comes to separation percentage. Wicks has generated separation on 82.14% of his routes through four games.
Analytics agencies are a dime-a-dozen these days, so I wanted to cross-reference this with NFL Next Gen Stats’s receiver separation scores for pass-catchers with at least 25 targets. Incidentally, Wicks’s teammate Jayden Reed leads the league in this stat, with an overall separation score of 4.5.
However, Wicks is tied for eighth in the league in this same metric, with a separation score of 3.6. This feels confirmation enough that Wicks, if not the singularly-most-talented wide receiver in the NFL at gaining separation in 2024, is generating impressive separation at a consistent clip.
We love this. It means that Wicks is creating opportunities for himself in the passing game. But to what degree are the quarterbacks identifying these opportunities such that Wicks is generating actual regulation opportunities?
Here’s a look at some of his opportunity metrics among receivers with at least 15 targets this season:
- RecYOE: -87 (third-worst in the NFL)
- CROE: -24.6% (worst in the NFL)
- Drops: 5 (worst in the NFL)
- Routes: 22 (tied for seventh-worst in the NFL)
- Air Yards: 342 (tied 20th in the NFL)
- End zone targets: 3 (tied fourth in the NFL)
He will run more routes, and the receiving yards/catch rate over expectation stats will regress positively in the coming weeks with Love back at the helm. As they do, Wicks’s fantasy value will skyrocket. The window to buy low might close this week against the Rams.
Remember, also: Last season, Wicks finished fourth among rookies in total explosive catches (defined here as catches of 16-or-more yards) with 18.
As with many young receivers with raw, explosive talent like Wicks, he appears, too often, to get in his own way. As noted above: he has five drops already this year, which is the worst in the league. That should work itself out.
There is a bit of team hype surrounding Wicks, as well. LaFleur has praised the second-year wideout far and wide, and there’s the now-oft-cited moment where, after a drop, LaFleur pulled Wicks aside and told him the ball was coming right back to him. This is the degree of faith—or at least the magnitude of their commitment—they have in Wicks even with a receiver room with similarly highly-regarded talents like Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
Bottom Line
Wicks faces a porous Rams secondary this week, and all his advanced receiving metrics suggest he’s going to be able to torch these corners.
Jordan Love is one week healthier. One week more accurate. One week deeper into his rapport with Wicks. The Packers might need to spread the ball around a little more than they’d like to because McVay might shade his defense to try to negate Wicks. But 13 in green is only even one explosive play away from justifying a fantasy football start.
Seeing as the Rams defense is one we’re planning to attack every week until further notice, this is a no-brainer. You must buy low on/must add/must start Dontayvion Wicks in Week 5.
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