We’re back with Week 5’s best fantasy football stash players, courtesy of our resounding success last week!
In Week 4, we hit on: Tank Bigsby, Roschon Johnson, Jordan Addison, Xavier Legette, and Darnell Mooney (again). Hope you stashed ’em! They’ve all got season-long value, now. Follow me on X at @dansby_edits for all my stat-and-sleeper-related fantasy threads throughout the week.
Here’s the list for Week 5, in no particular order. It just so happened it worked out positionally such as it did.
Stash ’em
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (40.8% rostered)
I’m all-in on Dontayvion Wicks this week. I think he’s a brooding volcano on the verge of eruption.
After Pro Football Focus ranked Wicks best in the NFL with a 82.14% separation percentage score, I did a rabbit-hole-level deep dive of his stats in this piece. Here’s an excerpt:
However, Wicks is tied for eighth in the league in [NFL Next Gen Stats’s separation] metric, with a separation score of 3.6. This feels confirmation enough that Wicks, if not the singularly-most-talented wide receiver in the NFL at gaining separation in 2024, is generating impressive separation at a consistent clip.
We love this. It means that Wicks is creating opportunities for himself in the passing game. But to what degree are the quarterbacks identifying these opportunities such that Wicks is generating actual regulation opportunities?
Here’s a look at some of his opportunity metrics among receivers with at least 15 targets this season:
- RecYOE: -87 (third-worst in the NFL)
- CROE: -24.6% (worst in the NFL)
- Drops: 5 (worst in the NFL)
- Routes: 22 (tied for seventh-worst in the NFL)
- Air Yards: 342 (tied 20th in the NFL)
- End zone targets: 3 (tied fourth in the NFL)
He will run more routes, and the receiving yards/catch rate over expectation stats will regress positively in the coming weeks with Love back at the helm. As they do, Wicks’s fantasy value will skyrocket. The window to buy low might close this week against the Rams.
Wicks might be flying off waivers as you read this with the recent news that Romeo Doubs’s Sunday status is uncertain for personal reasons. It sounds sketchy. Probably because it is.
Watson won’t be back for a good while. It might be the Reed and Wicks show in Lambeau for the next good while. Get Wicks while you can.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns (61.9% rostered)
Jeudy isn’t just stash-level this week. He’s start-level. I wrote about his remarkably-steady-Eddy receiving metrics here.
An excerpt with a stat rundown comparing Jeudy and Amari Cooper:
I’m on record saying Cooper’s opportunity metrics are bonkers. It’s because they are. Maybe what’s more impressive is how much more highly-graded, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jeudy has been with his opportunities than Cooper.
A non-exhaustive rundown:
- EPA/target: Cooper: -0.19, Jeudy: 0.14
- Yards per route: Cooper: 0.9, Jeudy: 1.3
- Yards per target: Cooper: 4.0, Jeudy: 6.6
- Receiving yards: Cooper: 148, Jeudy: 197
- End Zone targets: Cooper: 2, Jeudy: 2
- NGS Grade: Cooper: 61.5, Jeudy: 90.6
- Receptions: Cooper: 16, Jeudy: 18
Emphasize the last bullet, here, because it’s important to know that Jeudy’s overall receiver grade is actually based on a larger reception sample than Cooper’s.
Jeudy’s out there in about 40% of leagues. He’s this week’s Christian Watson. People are getting frustrated and cutting bait, even though he’s the WR32 and averaging 11.4 PPR points per game.
Snag him if you can. He’ll be a high-end WR2 if Cooper ever misses time, and should post a 20+ FPT game sooner than later.
Samaje Perine, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (11.9% rostered)
Light analysis here. Carson Steele just doesn’t feel like the answer, and Kareem Hunt isn’t going to be taking all the high-value touches in this backfield. They’re going to need a 2024 Jerick McKinnon.
Perine seems like the easy candidate to step up and do that. Imagine if you could get early in on some of the late-year production McKinnon has had the last few seasons? Sheesh. A sleeper indeed.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts (8.2% rostered) / Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (17.4%)
This is similar to the Legette / Mingo conundrum from Week 4 (more on them later). Michael Pittman leads the Colts in targets with 29. No other wide receiver behind him has fifteen-or-more targets.
Pierce was an early candidate to be 2024’s most surprisingly-and-consistently explosive wideout through two games. But, in the weeks hence, his opportunities have largely fallen off. His production, with it, has tanked. I doubt, however, his talent has seen any sort of dramatic dip, seeing as we’ve heard nothing about an injury.
Mitchell is a bit more of an interesting case. His catch percentage of 15.5% is atrocious; his expected catch percentage of 49.5% isn’t great, either. We know the Colts passing game isn’t stable right now. Mitchell is suffering the most of any of its wideouts: his -91 RecYOE is one of the worst figures in the league, and is dead last on the Indianapolis roster.
A reminder of Mitchell’s superlative athleticism, as per his NFL combine scores:
- 40-yard dash: 4.34 (97th percentile)
- Speed score: 117.1 (98th percentile)
- Burst score: 135.2 (96th percentile)
- Catch radius: 10.29 (92nd percentile)
Mitchell is an absolute athletic specimen, and Pierce has flashed spectacular-catch prowess so far.
Still—break it down however you want between them both, but the volume just hasn’t been there. Neither have the opportunities. Outlandish stat: both Pierce and Mitchell have run as many routes as they have registered targets—14 for Pierce and 13 for Mitchell.
This passing game is eventually going to have to become more inclusive of its other wideouts, whether it be Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco at the helm. I like these guys to beat out Josh Downs.
I’ll go on record saying I think Pierce is the add, here. But Mitchell is a fantastic stash, and has flashed some real talent—albeit on empty production—early in his rookie season.
Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (33.5% rostered)
Ahead of last week, I told you to grab Legette over Mingo just based on a gut call. That paid off for us all: six receptions on ten targets, 66 yards, and a receiving touchdown. He also had two carries for ten yards.
Dalton has this offense firing on all cylinders. How is Legette still available in 75% of leagues. You can’t tell me 75% of benches are filled with players with better outlooks than Legette. The math simply doesn’t work out.
Legette made the most of his targets last week and the week before. Why wouldn’t it continue this week against a Bears defense in a letdown spot for the secondary? I think it will. I break down the stats here.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers (3.4% rostered)
Similar to last week’s note: Pure stash play. Could be the case here that Pearsall returns from IR (chest/shoulder) and looks immediately a bit cleaner than Brandon Aiyuk has so far. Teams aren’t going to just let Jauan Jennings run wild on them like he’s actually Nico Collins, even though their advanced receiving metrics are startlingly similar.
San Francisco isn’t opening the practice window for him this week. He’d only occupy an IR slot for right now. You don’t really have much to lose. As I said last week: when the Niners passing offense is clicking, everyone eats. And they drafted Pearsall out of Florida with big plans earlier this year.
Jordan Whittington (7.9% rostered)
I think there’s a chance Whittington could be this year’s Puka Nacua. Or this year’s 2021 Cooper Kupp. Look at how the Rams utilized him last week against the Bears.
The Rams know Stafford is most comfortable when he’s kingmade a receiver in the group to be his safety valve. He’s currently searching for one with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua still out with injuries. The film looked good for Whittington, and his final line in Week 4 wasn’t bad either: six receptions on eight targets for 62 yards. By far his most prolific effort yet.
The Rams are on bye in Week 6, so this is a true stash play. But Nacua is still due to miss a few weeks after that, so Whittington’s usage could still be on the uptick in two weeks’ time.
Honorable mentions
- DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots (25.0% rostered) – League-worst-in-DVOA Miami defense. Pop’s been creating a lot of separation. This could be the week.
- Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers (58.2% rostered) – Hottest waiver wire add of the week, so not really a stash, but he’s still out there in a third of leagues!
- Antonio Gibson, RB, New England Patriots (32.4% rostered) – How much do we believe Mayo’s suggestion of a potential RB change? If he’s whatsoever serious, you’d be getting in early on it this week.
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