Fridays are for Five Lists of Five! And, would you lookie there—it’s Week 5. Alliteration goes nutbar right now.
I’ll be doing this for every week of the season. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, 250 words per player (notice how that number has already ballooned since the first list?).
Kicking it off this week with five buy-low trade targets.
Follow along at my handle @dansby_edits for stat threads with minimal emojis all week long. The minimal emojis thing is how I differentiate myself in the market, you see.
Still some emojis, though. I’m human.
Also available from this week’s Friday’s Five Lists of Five:
- Top five fantasy football stash players for NFL Week 5
- Top five fantasy football sell high players for NFL Week 5
- Top five fantasy football streamers for NFL Week 5
- Top five fantasy football wide receivers due for breakout games in NFL Week 5
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
A repeat from last week. Intentionally so. I really believe the buy-low window on Pickens is closing. Did we all see how swiftly the buy-low window closed on Drake London last night? That’s all it takes. One game.
Because, to be clear, Pickens has had some fairly impressive stat lines thus far. In the three games in which he’s finished with seven-or-more targets, he’s logged five, six, and seven receptions respectively. He finished above 10 PPR FPTs in all three of those games.
His best game was last week against the Colts, largely buoyed by a Justin-Fields-led comeback effort that was essentially an air raid.
Pickens is still on this list because folks have been going around this week trumpeting that he’s matchup-dependent. I don’t think so. Put some feelers out for him.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
This is a confluence of opportunity and some discouraging recent production. In his last two games, Dobbins hasn’t scored above (though he’s come close to) the ten PPR-point threshold. This is after two weeks of over 20 points.
Dobbins owners in your league are likely kicking themselves for not selling high in between Weeks 2 and 3. But, they’ll say, you can’t blame them! Harbaugh in the offense, a banged up Herbert, a depleted room of pass-catchers. The situation was there for Dobbins to have a volcanic season, barring injury! But now they feel as if they’re staring at a replacement-level running back in a RBBC.
They’re not, and the situation is still there for Dobbins to come back from his bye week molten hot. Herbert’s arm strength will be enough to compensate for the lingering lower-body pain he’s sure to be managing all season long, what with the ankle sprain and the plantar fasciitis from the offseason.
He’s much more a high-end RB2 than a low-end. Get in on it.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
I just don’t buy that he’s as bad as the collective point of view of the average fantasy manager seems to think. They’ve utterly written Tee Higgins off. But last week’s line (ten targets, six receptions, 60 yards) is a sample much more representative of Higgins’s floor than the 6.9 FPT effort from his first game of 2024.
I took a look at his advanced stats on NFL NGS. Nothing here suggests that he’s due for any regression. His current NGS grade of 70.4% is well-below his average, so I’d expect that—barring lingering injury concerns—to rise as the season goes on.
So, too, will Higgins’s production. The Bengals’ defense stinks. Burrow might have to blow out his wrist throwing the ball fifty times a game. Higgins should see at least five targets a game. At least.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is all about touchdowns. Of which Josh Jacobs has zero.
This is a feature back in an offense on the rise—whose backups, by the way, had plenty opportunity to establish and carve a role for themselves—who is due for serious paydirt regression. He also is on pace to churn out 1,400 yards by season’s end.
I’m offering a solid WR2 for him. He’ll finish as an RB1.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns
I wrote about Jeudy this week on his own as a great must-add/buy-low target. I break down more of his opportunity metrics in the article, but here’s a quick rundown as to why I’m including him here:
I’m on record saying Cooper’s opportunity metrics are bonkers. It’s because they are. Maybe what’s more impressive is how much more highly-graded, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jeudy has been with his opportunities than Cooper.
A non-exhaustive rundown:
- EPA/target: Cooper: -0.19, Jeudy: 0.14
- Yards per route: Cooper: 0.9, Jeudy: 1.3
- Yards per target: Cooper: 4.0, Jeudy: 6.6
- Receiving yards: Cooper: 148, Jeudy: 197
- End Zone targets: Cooper: 2, Jeudy: 2
- NGS Grade: Cooper: 61.5, Jeudy: 90.6
- Receptions: Cooper: 16, Jeudy: 18
Emphasize the last bullet, here, because it’s important to know that Jeudy’s overall receiver grade is actually based on a larger reception sample than Cooper’s.
Njoku coming back, I think, will only stand to benefit Jeudy. He’s been remarkably steady so far. Don’t let a breakout week slip by you before you put an offer out for him. Think, like, Bucky Irving as a good comp for trade collateral, here.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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