As we close out August and head into the final month of MLB’s regular season, allow me to take a moment to look back. Despite what’s certainly been an underwhelming performance since the All-Star break, we’re 55-51-1 on article plays for the season. We’ve also got futures at plus-money for the Yankees to miss the playoffs and the Twins to sneak their way in, not to mention win totals for Minnesota and Arizona that are near locks to cash sometime soon.
It’s all pretty good, yet it could be better. The push to finish strong on the diamond starts tonight. Let’s dive into this small slate.
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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Under 8.5 (-102)
I don’t want to simplify things too much, but these two teams both played on Wednesday and they combined to score zero runs across 19 innings (the Marlins’ game went to extras). If you’re looking for a microcosm of what the past two weeks have been, you’re probably not going to find a more obvious one. In that span, Miami is hitting .211 with a 69 wRC+ that is the third-lowest mark in baseball. They’re also currently without the services of Jorge Soler (hip), who leads the team in home runs (35), RBI (71) and expected wOBA (.371). As for the Nationals, their .113 ISO and 5.5% walk rate are the NL’s worst-marks the past 14 days. It’s pretty difficult to score runs in bunches without any power or the ability to get on base consistently.
However, this isn’t just about ice cold lineups. Braxton Garrett also deserves his flowers. The 26-year-old LHP has been quite good in 2023, registering a 3.67 FIP across 134.0 innings of work. Garrett’s been particularly amazing when getting the opportunity to pitch on the road this season, sporting a 2.86 ERA and a 2.82 FIP in the 12 starts he’s made within the split. That includes six frames of one-run ball back in mid-June against this same Washington squad. Again, this play is mostly about ineffective bats on both sides, but the presence of Garrett certainly doesn’t hurt.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100)
The insane thing about the Braves is that they get to place a hitter as good as Harris in the nine-hole each and every night. While the reigning NL Rookie of the Year started 2023 a little slowly — injuries didn’t help — Harris has been on absolute fire since the beginning of June, slashing .335/.366/.529 over 296 plate appearances. Yeah. Atlanta’s nine-hitter is batting .336 with a .913 OPS against RHPs the last three months. What a luxury.
Harris’ matchup on Thursday is Lance Lynn. Admittedly, Lynn has been much better since getting into Los Angeles’ pitching lab, rocking a 2.03 ERA in his five starts since the trade deadline. Still, for the season as a whole, LHBs have given the veteran fits. In fact, opposing left-handed bats are hitting .313 off Lynn with a .398 wOBA. The 36-year-old has surrendered an eye-popping 2.49 home runs per nine within the split. Harris might not be able to add to that long ball total, but he doesn’t have to with this prop. He could hit the over with a single base knock, then scoring as he turns the Braves’ dangerous lineup over. It’s just that easy.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
