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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks Today: NFL Week 12 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images

GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.

No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.

OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.

Let’s dive into Week 12.

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Game Stack: Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles

Josh Allen ($8,100) — Stefon Diggs ($8,800) — Gabe Davis ($5,300) — D’Andre Swift ($6,800 - Questionable)

The Eagles’ secondary has been a goldmine for fantasy purposes this season. They’ve allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and face what is likely a “hangry” Josh Allen, who is no longer confined to light meals only after the firing of former OC Ken Dorsey.

Allen had a terrific game in his last outing against the Jets — a top-five secondary — throwing for 8.59 yards per attempt and 3 TDs, and it would be somewhat shocking if we didn’t get another solid performance from him this week. If Allen does excel or exceed last week’s totals, then this will also likely end up being a great buy-low spot on Stefon Diggs. Diggs is still priced near the $9K$9K mark but his ownership may not be as high as it should be this week given the slow couple of games he’s had (under 40 yards in two straight games). The Eagles did well holding Patrick Mahomes under 200 yards in Week 11 but the Chief lack an explosive WR1 like Diggs and they’ve struggled against elite WR1s all season (CeeDee Lamb 11-191, Cooper Kupp 8-118, Tyreek Hill 11-88-1).

These two will be a somewhat popular stack so why not differentiate ourselves in big GPPs by taking the ultimate boom or bust option in Gabe Davis alongside them? Davis has been bypassed by Khalil Shakir in targets lately but there is room for Davis to find some traction this week, as the Eagles have allowed the second-most TDs to the WR position. It’s also worth remembering that Davis has four games this season with 15.0 or more DKFP — and two games with 20.0 or more DKFP. The Bills will likely take their shots in this game with Davis downfield and if one, or multiple targets connect, he’ll likely exceed 3x or 4x in value.

As for a comeback play, you know the Eagles will be running the ball and lately, a lot of touches have gone to D’Andre Swift. Swift is averaging 19.77 touches per game since he took over the starting job in Week 2 and also faces a depleted Bills’ linebacker crew that lost Matt Milano early in the season. Swift should also have a chance to excel as a pass-catcher this week given the Bills' propensity to allow passes to flow to his position (fourth-most receptions allowed to opposing RBs). Regardless of game flow, Swift should be on the field a ton in a game this big and has a plus matchup with the up-and-down Bills defense on the opposing side.

Quarterback: Kenny Pickett ($4,800), Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Just like Josh Allen above, I also like buying into the new coaching narrative with Kenny Pickett who should benefit from the recent firing of OC Matt Canada. Under Canada, the Steelers were 27th in yards per play and Pickett was 30th in yards per attempt. The Bengals also look like a great opponent as they could be without their top corner in Cam Taylor-Britt (quad), which would open up the field for the likes of Diontae Johnson ($4,900).

Using the cheap Steelers’ passing game obviously carries risk given how poorly they have produced most weeks but the Bengals pass defense has allowed 250+ yards against in four straight games and allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for 10.14 yards per attempt in Week 11. Pickett is likely better than he’s shown this year and buying in at this low point against a crumbling secondary makes sense given the coaching change.

Running Back

Top End: Rashaad White ($6,100), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

White has been under-the-radar spectacular for fantasy all season. The second-year back is tied for fifth in receptions among all RBs (4.4 per game) and will face off against a Colts defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year. White’s main strength is his pass-catching but this may be a spot where he gets going as a rusher as well.

The Colts have allowed 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games and have ceded the third most rushing TDs to RBs this year. White has taken all but four of the red zone touches among Tampa Bay RBs and has scored four times in his last three games. At under $6.5K, he looks like a great high-tier value in Week 12.

Low End: Javonte Williams ($5,700), Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns

Williams is near the same price point as White but he also looks like a solid value in this range. The Broncos like to run the ball and rank 7th in yards per rush attempt as a team and 13th in overall rush rate. Furthermore, they face a Cleveland team that isn't as strong against the run (4.5 yards per carry against over the last three weeks) as it is against the pass.

The Browns’ lack of explosiveness on offense should keep this game close as well, which will mean a lot of carries for Williams who has had 18 or more touches in three of his last four games. I expect the Broncos to give Williams a ton of work so they can avoid the Browns’ pass rush, and if he breaks off a big play or finds the end zone at any point, a massive day could transpire in a better-than-advertised matchup.

Wide Receiver

Top End: Tank Dell ($6,900), Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

“If it’s not broken don’t fix it”, can likely be applied to Tank Dell in this spot. He’s produced 100+ yards and a TD in two of his last three games and has averaged 11.75 targets, per game, over his last three starts as well. Dell’s rise to elite status has meant that his price has risen but at under $7K, it doesn’t look like it’s risen enough to stop considering him as a decent value target either.

His QB, CJ Stroud ($7,700), is third in yards per attempt this year and faces a Jacksonville secondary that ranks just 23rd in yards per attempt against over the last three games. Dell is in a spot to keep seeing plenty of deeper targets and may end up approaching his ceiling in volume as well given the tight spread (Texans +1.5) in this game.

Top Value: Rashid Shaheed ($4,300), New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

One player I think we’ll see excel down the stretch is Rashid Shaheed. With Michael Thomas out, Shaheed saw his usage bump last week, playing on 46 snaps while also seeing a season-high nine targets. Atlanta has had issues in coverage lately and has allowed 11 TDs to opposing WRs this season — good for the sixth-most. With top corner AJ Terrell likely to be staying with top WR Chris Olave all game, the field should be open for Shaheed to make some plays.

Shaheed comes into Week 12 ranked fourth in yards per catch (16.9) and even if the volume doesn’t go up a ton, there is every reason to believe he can break a big play against a banged-up and somewhat inconsistent secondary. With his price under $4.5K and his snap share likely to stay steady at around 70% or more, it’s a good time to consider him as a high-upside value play in Week 12.

Tight End: David Njoku ($4,100), Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

It’s hard to be bullish on most things Cleveland offensively this week but the 15 targets that David Njoku received last week in the Browns close win are tough to ignore. Njoku acted as Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s ($4,900) go-to outlet for the entire game and has now seen a target share of over 30% in each of his last two starts.

The Browns are clearly going small ball with Thompson-Robinson starting and the Broncos’ weak coverage across the middle of the field (5 TDs allowed to opposing TEs, most fantasy points per game allowed to opposing TEs) makes this a spot where Njoku could potentially find a little more room downfield. If you need to keep your TE under $5K this week, Njoku certainly offers some of the best upside available even if his starting QB doesn’t offer up much in the way of big plays.

Defense/Special Teams: Denver Broncos ($3,200) vs Cleveland Browns

We don’t have a ton of cheap defenses to choose from in Week 12 as DraftKings has adjusted the salaries a little with the floor now coming in at $2.6K. With everyone belt-tightening this week and trying to stay under $3K, I think it’s likely a good time to pay a bit extra and differentiate with a defense like the Broncos, who have been coming on strong lately in fantasy.

The Broncos have been one of the most opportunistic defenses over the last month, compiling 12 turnovers over their last three games. The Browns are also suddenly looking like a great offense to start defenses against. Late-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,900) will again get the start this week and while he only turned the ball over once, he also only produced 13 points and threw for 3.8 yards per attempt. Denver should be in a spot to excel and looks like a prime upside/pay-up target in GPPs.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.