We are already through 11% of the 2022-23 NFL season! Time sure does fly, especially when you’re having fun stacking the BAL/MIA game from Week 2. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 50 points — BUF/MIA (53) and DET/MIN (53). HOU/CHI and NO/CAR have the lowest totals at 40.5. There are no double-digit favorites and four games are under a field goal - ATL/SEA (2), GB/TB (2), NO/CAR (2.5) and LV/TEN (2). There are eight road favorites this weekend - KC -6.5 at IND, PHI -6.5 at WAS, BUF -5.5 at MIA, CIN -5 at NYJ, BAL -3 at NE, LV -2 at TEN, NO -2.5 at CAR and LAR -3.5 at ARI.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts, $7,900 — There are a ton of good quarterbacks on this slate and most will go with Josh Allen ($8,200), Jalen Hurts ($7,600), Lamar Jackson ($8,000) or Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100). I see paths in all of those games that could somewhat disappoint, especially when factoring in ownership. The Colts are one of the best run defenses in the league and play primarily a Cover-2 scheme on the backend. That should skew things more towards the pass, which is always a good thing when you have Mahomes under center, and the weakness of the Colts defense perfectly aligns with the strength of the Chiefs, which is Travis Kelce ($7,900).
Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,200), Jalen Hurts ($7,600), Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Kyler Murray ($7,300)
Value
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, $6,500 — Stafford is my favorite quarterback on this slate. There are so many “good” options up top that Stafford will more than likely go overlooked, but this game environment is the best in my opinion. So far this season, the Rams and Cardinals are 6th and 9th in passing rate. Arizona blitzes at the highest rate while being 28th in pass-defense DVOA. Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz. Last season, according to NFL.com Next Gen Stats, Stafford had a 141.8 passer rating against the blitz, the highest mark since 2016. The completion percentage was 71.9% against the blitz compared to 66.2% when not pressured, and 16 of his 17 interceptions came with four or fewer rushers. The total is a healthy 48.5 points and this could be a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Joe Burrow ($6,600), Marcus Mariota ($5,500)
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Running Back
Stud
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $7,900 — Did you see the Cousins debacle on Monday night? I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the Vikings will lean on the ground game this week, especially since the Lions have been able to generate pressure, ranking 9th in adjusted sack rate. Detroit is also 23rd in rush defense DVOA and has allowed the most rushing touchdowns so far this season.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($8,000), D’Andre Swift ($7,200)
Value
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans, $5,900 – Montgomery is the guy for the Bears, garnering 66% and 80% of the snaps in the first two games. He’s rushed 17 and 15 times while receiving 4 and 2 targets. This game has a lowly total of 40.5 points but the spread is only two points in favor of Chicago, so Montgomery should get fed. Houston is 25th in rush-defense DVOA and has allowed the most rushing yards to date while allowing the ninth-most receptions to running backs.
Other Options – Josh Jacobs ($5,400), Miles Sanders ($5,500)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals, $9,900 — Well, Stafford is my favorite quarterback on the slate so it’s only natural that I would like Kupp as well. He’s expensive so decisions will have to be made. That said, my momma often told me that you get what you pay for and Kupp has delivered the goods more often than not since being paired with Stafford. In two games against Arizona last season, Kupp caught 5-of-7 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in one game and hauled in 13 of 15 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown in the other.
Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($9,300), Stefon Diggs ($7,700), Davante Adams ($8,400), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200)
Value
Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers, $3,900 – I know, I know. It’s gross but Perriman should be on the field a lot this Sunday. Mike Evans is out due to a one-game suspension while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are likely out due to injury. Snaps are half the battle. Yo, Joe! If it’s any consolation, after Evans was ejected last week, Perriman caught three of five targets for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Other Options – Brandin Cooks ($5,800), Curtis Samuel ($5,100), Drake London ($5,800)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts, $7,900 – Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets. The Colts defense allows passes in the middle of the field, which translates to elevated tight end production. Keep It Simple Stupid.
Other Options – Darren Waller ($5,800)
Value
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, $4,500 – Well, I love Stafford and Kupp. Why not double up on the top tight end option? Higbee is second on the team in targets and has received 11 and nine in the first two games. The Cardinals have allowed the most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends this season. 1 + 1 = 2.
Other Options – Dawson Knox ($4,100)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Bengals DST at New York Jets, $3,600 – The Bengals are favored by five points on the road and should bounce back from their early offensive struggles as the Jets’ defense has had difficulty getting pressure on the quarterback and is dead-last in pass-defense DVOA. If they put up points, then that will force the Jets to respond appropriately. In the first two games, Joe Flacco ($5,300) has dropped back to pass 59 and 44 times. He’s thrown one interception and has been sacked five times. The Bengals DST only has two sacks and one fumble recovery on the season but there should be plenty of opportunities to rack up points.
Other Options – Eagles DST ($2,900), Rams DST (3,400), Bills DST (3,500)
Value
Packers DST at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $2,800 – Tampa Bay is a wounded and hobbled team right now, as the top three receiving options could be out while the offensive line has issues. Green Bay is 10th in pass-defense DVOA and 13th in adjusted sack rate, but they have plenty of playmakers, especially in the secondary, to make splash plays.
Other Option – Seahawks DST ($2,700), Lions DST (2,200), Jaguars DST ($2,300)
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