A pivotal intra-conference clash is set to kick off on Saturday. Don’t look now, but Duke (7-2, 4-2) still has a shot at winning its second straight ACC championship. If the Blue Devils are going to take home another title, that means pulling off a massive road upset. #7 Miami (8-1, 6-0) just suffered its first loss of the season, a one-score defeat at Notre Dame. The Hurricanes will be looking to get back on track this afternoon at home.
The Hurricanes are listed as 13.5-point favorites over the Blue Devils, with the total set at O/U 54.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Duke vs. Miami matchup.
For more college football picks, join the CFB Betting Group!
Duke vs. Miami prediction, preview
The big storyline here is Duke transfer Darian Mensah, now Miami’s standout passer. In the absence of last season’s starting quarterback, the Blue Devils have reinvented themselves on offense. This is a ground-first approach, ranking third in the ACC with 190.6 rushing yards per game and 5.23 yards per carry. Nate Sheppard is the cornerstone of this offense, putting up whopping numbers out of the backfield. Through nine games, the sophomore has gained a conference-best 1,189 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns. Duke’s new signal caller, Walker Eget, has held his own, throwing for 1,849 yards, ten touchdowns and three interceptions.
This will be a battle of strength on strength inside the trenches. Miami wields one of the nation’s elite run defenses, holding teams to just 2.46 yards per carry. That’s good enough for fourth-best in all of college football. To boot, opponents have only reached the end zone five times this season. Last week, Notre Dame only managed to rack up 93 rushing yards against the Hurricanes, well below their season-long average (175.7 YPG). Through the air, this group is far more vulnerable. Opposing passers are averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt against Miami, only good enough for ninth-best in the ACC.
As previously mentioned, this will be Mensah’s first game against his old school. The senior has been just as good, if not better, since coming to South Beach. Over nine games, he’s thrown for 2,694 yards, 28 touchdowns and only two interceptions. It’s fair to say that Miami hasn’t played the toughest competition this season. Regardless, Mensah notched 269 yards and three touchdowns last week against an elite Irish defense. To boot, he did so without his top weapon in Malachi Toney. The wideout remains sidelined with an ankle sprain, but fellow pass catcher Cooper Barkate is capable of stepping up.
Slinging the rock could prove more difficult than usual for Miami this afternoon. The Blue Devils are stingy in the back seven, giving up 6.5 yards per pass attempt. That’s good enough for third-best in the ACC. Granted, this isn’t the most opportunistic group. They’ve only managed to snag two interceptions. The Canes may need to lean on their running game, led by Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory. The two have combined for 1,023 rushing yards and 17 total touchdowns this season. Duke’s run defense hasn’t been too shabby, surrendering just over three yards per carry.
Duke vs. Miami Pick, Best Bet
For as great as the Hurricanes have been this season, they’ve had a few close calls. Two of the team’s last three wins, against Florida State and North Carolina, have come by one possession. On paper, Duke is superior to both of those squads. Getting Sheppard going could prove difficult, but the Blue Devils are committed to the run game. In addition, Miami’s offense isn’t as potent with Toney on the mend. Buy up a point and back the visitors to cover in this one.
Best Bet: Duke +14.5 (-134)
For more college football picks, join the CFB Betting Group!
