Friday is an NBA Cup night. bringing colorful courts and some additional stakes to the hoops slate. Tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs could’ve been the featured game of the slate, but Steph Curry is expected to miss around a month due to an injury suffered in his most recent appearance. As such, it’ll be up to Yaxel Lendeborg and Brandin Podziemski to carry the load against Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper; quite the tall task.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Warriors vs. Spurs matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Warriors vs. Spurs prediction, preview
For a minute there, it looked like the Warriors were one of the best teams in basketball. They’d shaken off their three losses to open the season and went on an eight-game winning streak before dropping their most recent outing to the Rockets, but that one came with a caveat. Steph Curry suffered an oblique tear that knocked him out of the contest and is expected to sideline him for around a month. Now 8-4, Golden State has shown that it has the talent to compete in the Western Conference, but will now have to overcome the absence of its leading scorer.
The Warriors are sixth in NETRTG at +7.9, but their elite offense that averages 119.3 PPG and ranks third in OFFRTG is expected to regress without their superstar. The good news is that the team does rank sixth in FG% (47.1%) and sixth in 3P% (39.6%), so the rest of the lineup’s efficiency should help keep things afloat. However, losing 27.8 PPG and your best shooter in one fell swoop hurts a ton. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg now gets to take on the lead role with 21.7 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists a night, and Brandin Podziemski will become even more important as the top guard with 17.3 points and 4.2 dimes a game. De’Anthony Melton averages 10.1 PPG, with Georges Niang and Charles Bassey as the team’s next-highest scorers. With their offensive supernova sidelined, the Warriors’ defense will need to hold up their end of the bargain, though. They’re currently 10th in PPG allowed (111.5) and 10th in DEFRTG, also ranking 11th in rebounds per game (44.6).
Even beyond Curry, there are notable names on the injury report. Brandon Williams averaged double-digit points but is out tonight, while Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody continue to rehab while waiting to make their season debuts. Kristaps Porzingis is also not with the team.
Coming out of the other locker room are the Spurs, who are looking quite formidable at 10-2. They’ve now taken the league’s longest winning streak to double digits, and many of their games haven’t been close over this span. They have a +11.2 NETRTG that ranks third in the NBA and look every bit of the team that made the Finals last year – and that’s without Tobias Harris, their featured offseason addition who remains out with a calf strain.
San Antonio is elite at both ends of the ball. The club is fifth in scoring with 119.2 PPG and sits fourth in OFFRTG, shooting a respectable 46.5% from the field and 34.9% from deep. The Spurs are seventh in assists per game (27.6) and are first in turnovers (12.4), also ranking seventh in free throw attempts (26.8). There are numerous names to mention, but it all starts with Victor Wembanyama – the Frenchman averages 30.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, also leading the league with 4.4 blocks a night. Dylan Harper is taking a sophomore leap with 18.0 points and 4.8 assists per game, while Stephon Castle pitches in 14.0 points and 5.0 dimes. De’Aaron Fox is questionable, though, as is Devin Vassell. That could leave this team without two double-digit scorers and its leader in assists per game, though they have the talent to overcome both their absences.
The defense is stellar, too. The Spurs allow 108.0 PPG, seventh fewest, and are fifth in DEFRTG. They’re also third in rebounds per game with 47.7, and of course, they lead the league in blocks.
Warriors vs. Spurs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Spurs as a 12.5-point favorite at home tonight with -670 odds on the Moneyline. The Warriors are a +487 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 217.5 combined points.
This could still be an interesting game if Podziemski and Lendeborg rise to the occasion, but the rest of the Warriors’ roster is clearly lacking in comparison to their opponent. The Spurs are much deeper to begin with, and that statement stands even if Fox and Vassell both miss this outing. They’ll also have the clear best player in the matchup with Wembanyama, who can wreak havoc on both sides of the ball. Golden State is tough, sure, but simply doesn’t have the kind of talent necessary to hang around in this matchup without Curry. San Antonio has an average scoring margin of +11.2 that ranks second across the league, which sits at +17.7 over the last three games. It’s simply difficult to envision the hottest team in the NBA failing to cover against a visiting side that’s missing the most important piece of its offense.
