Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels drove the Seminoles 90 yards for the winning touchdown at Boston College, giving interim head coach Rick Stockstill a 31–24 victory in his debut. FSU converted three third downs on that march and consumed 8:16. Tonight, Daniels faces a Pitt defense that just sacked Georgia Tech five times and allowed three conversions on 18 third downs. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Pitt Panthers and the Florida State Seminoles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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FSU vs. Pitt prediction, preview
Pitt can make Daniels miserable if FSU cannot run. The Panthers, who have two defensive tackles questionable, have allowed a stingy 68.3 rushing yards per game. FSU arrives without center Bradyn Welch-Joiner and running backs Ousmane Kromah, Samuel Singleton Jr. and Quintrevion Wisner. Replacement center Chavez Thompson has never started. Freshman back Amari Thomas ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries at BC. Stockstill has six days between games to prepare Thompson for Pitt’s shifting front.
Daniels hit receivers Micahi Danzy and Jasen Lopez for touchdowns from beyond 40 yards against Clemson, even though FSU converted a dreadful one of 10 third downs. They accounted for 160 of his 350 passing yards. With receiver Duce Robinson out, FSU needs that work against a Pitt defense allowing 252.6 passing yards per game. The Seminoles have ranked 16th in opponent-adjusted offensive possession efficiency, and Danzy followed his Clemson performance with seven catches for 86 yards at BC. Daniels has a dangerous receiver to find when the running lanes close.
Pitt running back Damon Ferguson Jr. gets to attack an FSU defense that has allowed 2.71 points per non-garbage possession against FBS opponents. He battered Georgia Tech for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries behind an offensive line whose five starters have opened every game. FSU interim defensive coordinator Ernie Sims watched BC running back Bo MacCormack gain 105 yards on 16 carries last week; defensive linemen Deante McCray and Kevin Wynn are out again. Ferguson should force FSU’s secondary to help tackle, leaving receiver Cataurus Hicks room to threaten deeper (20.5 yards per catch).
Pitt vs. FSU pick, best bet
Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi was still lamenting quarterback Holden Geriner’s red-zone misses after beating Georgia Tech 34–11. Geriner, now questionable with an undisclosed injury, has thrown two touchdowns in three starts (54.7% completions; 6.29 yards per attempt). Freshman backup Corey Dailey would replace him if he cannot play. Pitt has converted just seven of 28 third downs requiring at least seven yards across its last four games. FSU can force punts when Ferguson fails to shorten those distances.
I expect Pitt to run well enough to win at home. Daniels has enough downfield receiving to answer, though, and Pitt’s quarterbacks have struggled to finish the drives their backs sustain. FSU can threaten a narrow lead late. I’ll take the extra half-point above three.
Best bet: Florida State +3.5 (-118)
Projected score: Pitt 27, Florida State 24.
Best Bet: FSU +3.5 (-120) vs. Pitt
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