The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Northwestern Wildcats in a game with massive Big Ten implications. The game kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday in Columbus, Ohio.
The Buckeyes are listed as 14-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 44.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this Week 11 matchup.
Ohio State vs. Northwestern Prediction, Preview
Northwestern Preview
It has been an excellent season for Ryan Braun at Northwestern. He took over a program in total disarray, and Northwestern is now bowl-eligible for the third time in four seasons. Due to the injury situation at Ohio State, Northwestern has a chance to pull off an incredible upset in Columbus. Northwestern has a chance to win nine games in a season for the first time since 2018. Unlike Northwestern teams of old that relied on hard-nosed defense, this Wildcats team relies on its offense. They rank ninth in the nation in adj. offensive EPA/play.
However, Northwestern will have to play another week without starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Nicco Marchiol is set to start for the second straight week. He doesn’t have the explosiveness of Chiles in the passing game, but he is a dual-threat that provides a different look than Chiles does. Marchiol will need to build on his start from last week and play much better this week for Northwestern to have a chance.
Ohio State Preview
Ohio State is in a tough spot. The Buckeyes are on the brink of being eliminated from College Football Playoff contention, if they aren’t eliminated already. Since Julian Sayin went down, the Buckeyes are 0-2. It’s easy to blame freshman backup Luke Fahey, as the offense has clearly not been the same without Sayin. However, the defense is not stepping up to support its struggling offense. Ohio State gave up 30 points to Oregon and then 41 points to Oregon. Ohio State has not had a good run game this season, and it’s finally coming back to bite them with the pass offense not being as efficient.
Ohio State vs. Northwestern Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this game is for Ohio State to cover as 14-point favorites. Ohio State has dropped two straight since Julian Sayin went down, but they have a chance to figure it out here. They had to go on the road to face a USC team with one of the best quarterbacks in the country, in a spot where the Trojans were desperate for a win to keep their season alive. They then had to host an Oregon team that, despite their struggles this season, has one of the most talented rosters in the country.
The Ducks are a good example of how a team can find a groove after a few weeks of working with a backup quarterback. Dylan Raiola seemed to finally hit his stride in the Oregon offense last week. It could be Luke Fahey’s turn to do the same this week. Northwestern ranks outside the top 100 in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and defensive rushing success rate. The Buckeyes could actually establish the run at home and control this game.
Northwestern is also starting a backup quarterback, who could make some mistakes on the road against a scary Ohio State defense. This is the chance for the Buckeyes to right the ship and get a cozy win.
